Sunday 7 June 2026
74/100Why now: The stock is holding above key trend levels after a fresh reclaim of the fifty-day moving average, and it is pressing against a nearby resistance level without showing heavy distribution. The most recent earnings update reinforced the fundamental momentum, which can help convert a near-break into a sustained trend move.
Upside: Base case upside is a retest of the prior high area, which implies mid-single-digit upside from the current price. If the market stays constructive and the stock clears resistance with follow-through, upside expands toward low-double-digit gains over the next three to six months.
Risks: A broad market pullback could knock the stock back below its recently reclaimed trend line and delay any breakout attempt. A negative shift in comparable sales or gross margin commentary in the next update would likely compress the valuation multiple.
Reasonable portfolio fit TJX fits the quality-plus-early-momentum style as a steady operator with a history of executing through different consumer environments, and the current setup suggests the stock is acting well rather than breaking down. It also adds a different kind of earnings driver to the book versus defense and tech hardware, which can help diversify the portfolio’s sources of returns. This is the first direct consumer-focused pick, so it adds a new macro angle (value-minded spending) rather than doubling down on the prior themes. If you add more consumer names later, watch that the portfolio doesn’t become overly dependent on one economic outcome (either a sharp slowdown or a strong rebound) and keep the mix of defensives and cyclicals balanced.
Scorecard
| Sunday 7 June 2026 | ||
|---|---|---|
| Scorecard | 74/100 | |
| Company Detail | TJX - The TJX Companies, Inc. | Price 50d 200d1Y · daily |
| Current price | $160.71 | |
| Market cap | $177.5B | |
| Quality and Fundamental Score (100) | ||
| Breakout / Early-Momentum /25 | 15/25 | |
| Rev/EPS Momentum /20 | 19/20 | |
| Business Quality /15 | 13/15 | |
| Balance Sheet /15 | 12/15 | |
| Valuation /10 | 5/10 | |
| Chatter / Attention /5 | 1/5 | |
| Macro / Sector Tailwind /10 | 9/10 | |
| Growth (mechanical) | ||
| Cash runway | Cash generative | |
| Revenue YoY | +7.1% | |
| EPS YoY | +14.3% | |
| FCF YoY | +17.1% | |
| Gross margin trend | +3.4pp | |
| Valuation & Trend | ||
| Trailing P/E | 31.3x | |
| Forward P/E | 27.9x | |
| RSI (14d) | 61 | |
| vs 50d SMA | +2.6% | |
| Support cushion | −2.7% | |
| Sentiment | ||
| Wall Street verdict | Aligned | |
| News tone | Quiet | |
| Dividend | 1.2% | |
How are these colored?
| Metric | Very high conviction | High conviction | Selective | Caution | Avoid |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall score | ≥ 80 | 70-79 | 60-69 | 50-59 | < 50 |
| Business quality /15 | ≥ 12 | 10-11 | 8-9 | 6-7 | < 6 |
| Balance sheet /15 | ≥ 12 | 10-11 | 8-9 | 6-7 | < 6 |
| Market cap | ≥ $20B | $5B-$20B | $2B-$5B | $1B-$2B | < $1B |
| Cash runway | ≥ 3 yr or cash generative | 1.5-3 yr | 0.75-1.5 yr | 0.25-0.75 yr | < 0.25 yr |
| Revenue YoY | ≥ 15% | 5-15% | 0-5% | -5-0% | < -5% |
| EPS YoY | ≥ 20% | 5-20% | 0-5% | -5-0% | < -5% |
| FCF YoY | ≥ 10% | 1-10% | 0-1% | -5-0% | < -5% |
| Gross margin trend (3y, pp) | ≥ +2pp | 0 to +2pp | -1 to 0pp | -2 to -1pp | < -2pp |
| Trailing P/E | < 15 | 15-25 | 25-35 | 35-40 | > 40 or neg |
| Forward P/E | < 15 | 15-25 | 25-35 | 35-40 | > 40 or neg |
| RSI (14d) | 50-70 | 45-50 or 70-75 | 40-45 or 75-78 | 30-40 or 78-80 | < 30 or > 80 |
| vs 50d SMA | +2% to +15% | 0-2% or 15-25% | -2-0% or 25-35% | -3--2% or 35-40% | < -3% or > 40% |
| Support cushion | 2-10% above | 0-2% | 10-15% | 15-20% | price below support |
| Wall Street verdict | Aligned | — | Mixed | — | Disagrees |
| News tone | Positive | — | Neutral / Mixed | — | Negative |
| Dividend | Yield ≥ 2% & growing | Growing | Flat payer ≥ 1% | Low / flat | Cutting |
Detailed Analysis — Sunday 7 June 2026
- This is a high-quality off-price retailer with a long record of steady execution and share gains across consumer cycles.
- Recent results show strong earnings growth and improving profitability, while management continues to emphasize returning capital to shareholders.
- The chart is constructive: trend is up, price is above key moving averages, and the stock is close enough to resistance that a modest catalyst can matter.
Show 1 headline from the last 7d
Scores 74 out of 100 — a decent overall grade. Earnings trend, sector fit, and business quality scored highest. Balance sheet also helped. Chart setup and valuation were fair but not standout drivers. The setup is strong but not a confirmed breakout yet, and valuation is not cheap versus history, so the score is capped despite strong earnings momentum.
Component scores are on the scorecard above.
- The stock is in an uptrend with a rising two-hundred-day moving average, and it is currently above both the fifty-day and two-hundred-day moving averages.
- The name is near its recent high but has not confirmed a breakout because the heartbeat signal is not present and the close is still just below the referenced resistance, so this is an early setup rather than a completed breakout.
- Volume expansion versus its baseline is supportive, but the latest short-term volume is not accelerating further, so follow-through is the key tell.
- In the fiscal 2027 first quarter ended May 2, 2026, the company reported comparable sales up 6%, pretax profit margin of 12.0%, and diluted earnings per share of $1.19, up 29% year over year.
- The company has highlighted ongoing share repurchases and dividend growth as part of its shareholder return framework, and its filings describe the off-price model and its margin drivers.
- Balance sheet leverage exists, but liquidity metrics cited by third-party data providers are not flashing distress.
Cash runway: Cash generative (latest annual free cash flow is positive).
Upcoming (1–6 months)
- Fiscal 2027 second quarter earnings release and guidance update scheduled for August 19, 2026
Ongoing
- Whether price can close above $160.80 and then hold above that level while staying above the fifty-day moving average
Risks
- If the broader consumer environment weakens sharply, traffic and ticket can soften and investors may de-rate retail multiples even for winners.
Breaks the thesis
- Close below $156.50 would break the near-term setup and would suggest the recent reclaim failed.