Latest High Conviction Idea
One Sunday high-conviction research report on a quality U.S. company with strong fundamentals and real-world tailwinds, screened by our cutting-edge scoring rubric. Use our tools to do your own research, with AI assistants across the site to help you dig deeper and track your portfolio.
Sunday research report · 13:00 UTC · three issues free
Free research
We scan liquid US stocks (large and mid-sized names with enough daily trading volume) for businesses that can work over months and years, not quick trades or hype names.
Every finalist is scored the same way: business quality, valuation, macro theme fit, and whether the chart supports a patient entry. The Sunday issue is one conviction idea with clear risks and a clear verdict. If nothing clears our bar, we say pass. We do not force an idea just to fill the page.
Last 5 Sunday research ideas. Entry vs S&P 500 and sector ETF.
Next high-impact US releases plus the largest upcoming earnings. Earnings calendar.
Street consensus going into the Sep 2, 2026 08:15 ET ADP private payrolls release is for a small uptick to roughly +48k (vs +44k prior)…
There’s no numeric “consensus” for a Fed speech, but the broad expectation is that Governor Waller will stick to a data-dependent message…
Four areas, the same every week, with clear reasoning behind each score.
What the company does, how it makes money, and whether sales and profits are on a solid path, not a one-quarter story.
Whether the price looks reasonable for what you are getting, compared with the company's own history and similar businesses, not a single magic number.
Earnings, product launches, industry trends, and bigger economic themes. What might help or hurt the share price over the next several months.
The main risks, what would change our mind, and when we would rather pass than publish a weak name.
Some long-running stock-picking services advertise average recommendation returns above 900%. Numbers like that can be real, but they usually refer to the average return of individual picks over time, not the compounded growth of one continuously invested portfolio.
Our scorecard should be read the same way. Each Picksmith idea is tracked as its own equal-dollar buy-and-hold research pick from publication date to the current measurement date, then compared with the S&P 500 over the exact same holding window. That makes the benchmark apples-to-apples, even when ideas were published in very different market conditions.
Picksmith is not designed to hunt for the most speculative moonshots in the market. We are generally trying to identify stronger businesses, clearer economic tailwinds, and setups that can compound over time.
You may already own higher-risk positions that can deliver huge returns if they work. Picksmith is meant to be the steadier base: stronger businesses and setups that can better weather difficult markets.
The kind of early breakout “heartbeat” pattern we screen for every week
