Thursday 11 June 2026
Industrials
37/100
37/100Why now: This is not a good “why now” long-term entry. The live chart shows RDW is well below its prior resistance level and the scan state is explicitly not set up, so the recent bounce does not yet look like a durable change in trend.
Upside: Upside depends on executing toward profitability and converting backlog into higher-quality earnings; if that happens, a move back toward the mid-teens to low-teens range analysts have discussed could be possible. Without profit progress, the downside is meaningful because the stock is still far below its prior peak and can re-rate quickly.
Risks: The biggest risk is that losses and cash needs continue despite revenue growth, which can force dilution or unfavorable financing. Another major risk is contract and program execution, where a single bad quarter can overwhelm the longer-term story.
Scorecard
Read:Very high convictionHigh convictionSelectiveCautionAvoidN/A
| Thursday 11 June 2026 | ||
|---|---|---|
| Scorecard | 37/100 | |
| Company Detail | RDW - Redwire Corporation | Price 50d 200d1Y · daily |
| Current price | $14.87 | |
| Market cap | $3.0B | |
| Quality and Fundamental Score (100) | ||
| Breakout / Early-Momentum /25 | 7/25 | |
| Rev/EPS Momentum /20 | 8/20 | |
| Business Quality /15 | 6/15 | |
| Balance Sheet /15 | 7/15 | |
| Valuation /10 | 3/10 | |
| Chatter / Attention /5 | 0/5 | |
| Macro / Sector Tailwind /10 | 6/10 | |
| Growth (mechanical) | ||
| Cash runway | 0.72 yr | |
| Revenue YoY | +10.3% | |
| EPS YoY | +3.0% | |
| FCF YoY | -609.8% | |
| Gross margin trend | -12.7pp | |
| Valuation & Trend | ||
| Trailing P/E | — | |
| Forward P/E | neg | |
| RSI (14d) | 46 | |
| vs 50d SMA | +13.5% | |
| Support cushion | −36.0% | |
| Sentiment | ||
| Wall Street verdict | Mixed | |
| News tone | Mixed | |
| Dividend | — | |
How are these colored?
| Metric | Very high conviction | High conviction | Selective | Caution | Avoid |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall score | ≥ 80 | 70-79 | 60-69 | 50-59 | < 50 |
| Business quality /15 | ≥ 12 | 10-11 | 8-9 | 6-7 | < 6 |
| Balance sheet /15 | ≥ 12 | 10-11 | 8-9 | 6-7 | < 6 |
| Market cap | ≥ $20B | $5B-$20B | $2B-$5B | $1B-$2B | < $1B |
| Cash runway | ≥ 3 yr or cash generative | 1.5-3 yr | 0.75-1.5 yr | 0.25-0.75 yr | < 0.25 yr |
| Revenue YoY | ≥ 15% | 5-15% | 0-5% | -5-0% | < -5% |
| EPS YoY | ≥ 20% | 5-20% | 0-5% | -5-0% | < -5% |
| FCF YoY | ≥ 10% | 1-10% | 0-1% | -5-0% | < -5% |
| Gross margin trend (3y, pp) | ≥ +2pp | 0 to +2pp | -1 to 0pp | -2 to -1pp | < -2pp |
| Trailing P/E | < 15 | 15-25 | 25-35 | 35-40 | > 40 or neg |
| Forward P/E | < 15 | 15-25 | 25-35 | 35-40 | > 40 or neg |
| RSI (14d) | 50-70 | 45-50 or 70-75 | 40-45 or 75-78 | 30-40 or 78-80 | < 30 or > 80 |
| vs 50d SMA | +2% to +15% | 0-2% or 15-25% | -2-0% or 25-35% | -3--2% or 35-40% | < -3% or > 40% |
| Support cushion | 2-10% above | 0-2% | 10-15% | 15-20% | price below support |
| Wall Street verdict | Aligned | — | Mixed | — | Disagrees |
| News tone | Positive | — | Neutral / Mixed | — | Negative |
| Dividend | Yield ≥ 2% & growing | Growing | Flat payer ≥ 1% | Low / flat | Cutting |
Detailed Analysis — Thursday 11 June 2026
What they do
Redwire sells space and defense technology products and services, including spacecraft components like solar arrays and deployable structures, and it also supplies uncrewed aerial systems through its defense business. It makes money by delivering hardware, engineering services, and mission solutions under government and commercial contracts.
Leadership
Peter CannitoCEO
Peter Cannito has been Chairman and Chief Executive Officer since June 2020.
Chris EdmundsCFO
Chris Edmunds is Chief Financial Officer and previously served as Senior Vice President and Chief Accounting Officer starting in 2022.
Summary thesis
- Redwire operates in attractive end markets where government and national security demand can provide multi-year opportunities.
- The company is showing strong top-line growth and has highlighted a rising backlog, and it recently reported a large improvement in gross margin.
- However, the investment case is weakened by large GAAP losses and uneven cash generation, and the current chart does not show an investable long-term setup.
- As a long-term holding candidate today, it is a low-conviction name that needs proof of sustained profitability and cleaner financial quality.
Wall Street alignment
Wall Street: Mixed signals (2 pos / 1 neg)
Analyst consensus
Buy (1.70, 9 analysts) · +5% upside
Institutional ownership
45% institutions, insiders 1.3%
Short interest
22.4% of float short · 0.7 d-to-cover
Smart money tape
+7 net (acc 8 / dist 1, last 26d)
Recent news
News Mixed · last 7d
Show 3 headlines from the last 7d
2026-06-09Filing−challenging
Redwire files current report for new at-the-market equity program of up to 500 million dollars ↗ · SEC
Redwire entered into a new equity distribution agreement that enables an at-the-market offering program of up to 500 million dollars of common stock. It matters because it increases potential dilution and signals the company wants more funding flexibility for working capital and general corporate uses.
2026-06-09Other−challenging
Redwire shares fall after announcement of 500 million dollars at-the-market equity program ↗ · Investing.com
Redwire stock fell after the company disclosed a large at-the-market equity program. The move reinforces near-term dilution risk and can pressure valuation even if no shares are immediately sold.
2026-06-04Contracts+supportive
Redwire announced it won a contract to support Astrobiome Space’s space agriculture mission using Redwire’s Greenhouse system on the International Space Station. It matters because it supports revenue opportunities in commercial space infrastructure and validates Redwire’s in-orbit hardware and services.
Dividends
Pays no regular dividend.
Technicals
Price
$14.87
RSI (14d)
45.6
50d SMA
$13.11
200d SMA
$9.70
vs 50d SMA
+13.5%
vs 200d SMA
+53.4%
Support (swing low)
$9.51 −36.0%
20-day high (R)
$26.64 +79.2%
Next swing high (swing high)
$15.73 +5.8%
Close as of 2026-06-10.
Score breakdown
Scores 37 out of 100 — a mixed overall grade. Sector fit was fair but not a standout driver. Balance sheet and earnings trend weighed on the total. The score is capped because the stock does not have an eligible long-term technical setup from the live tape and the company still shows heavy GAAP losses and uneven cash generation, which makes it a weak fit for a buy-and-hold candidate at this price.
Component scores are on the scorecard above.
Momentum evidence
- The live tape does not support a breakout-style long-term entry.
- RDW has a rising 200-day moving average and has rallied over the last 20 days, but the scan state is still no setup, the heartbeat flag is not confirmed, and price is far below the defined resistance level at $26.64; that combination usually signals a bounce inside a wider, damaged range rather than a new leadership trend.
Fundamental evidence
- Redwire reported full-year 2025 revenue of $335.4 million, up year over year, and management highlighted contracted backlog of $411.2 million entering 2026.
- In Q1 2026, revenue was about $97 million and gross margin improved to 26.6%, and the company reported a record backlog of $498.1 million and a book-to-bill ratio of 1.92.
- The red flag is profitability quality: Q1 2026 included a very large GAAP net loss (widely reported around $76.5 million), and results were materially affected by acquisition-related and equity-based compensation items tied to Edge Autonomy.
- Balance sheet liquidity looks adequate near term with cash around $145 million and reported debt around $90 million, but long-term investors should treat this as a company still in the “prove it” phase on sustainable earnings and cash flow.
Cash runway: 0.72 yr ($145M cash ÷ $201M/yr burn, latest fiscal year).
Revenue ▲
Free Cash Flow ▼
Net Income ▼
EPS (diluted) ▲
Gross margin ▼
Valuation view
At today’s price near $15.75, the company’s market value is large relative to its current revenue base, which leaves limited room for disappointment. Until profits and free cash flow become durable, valuation is hard to anchor on traditional measures, and peer comparisons tend to reward the companies that can show consistent operating leverage rather than just backlog growth.
Macro tailwind
Defense and national security demand for uncrewed systems and space-enabled capabilities remains a supportive backdrop, and government contract pipelines can be a real tailwind when execution is strong.
What to watch
Upcoming (1–6 months)
- Next quarterly earnings and guidance update (expected in early August 2026 per consensus calendars) to confirm whether margin improvement is durable.
Ongoing
- Gross margin stability and operating cash flow trend, to see whether revenue growth is translating into healthier economics rather than one-time swings.
Long-term case
Over a multi-year horizon, the bull case is that Redwire becomes a scaled supplier of space infrastructure components and defense uncrewed systems with improving margins as production ramps and programs mature. If the company can consistently convert backlog into profitable deliveries and reduce reliance on adjustments, it could earn a higher-quality valuation.
Right now, that long-term case is still aspirational: the company needs multiple quarters of clean execution, lower volatility in reported results, and credible progress toward sustained profitability.
Risks & invalidation
Risks
- Further dilution or expensive financing if cash burn re-accelerates or if large losses persist, especially in a tighter funding environment.
Breaks the thesis
- If the stock cannot build a base and instead breaks down materially from current levels while staying far below the $26.64 resistance marker, it would confirm the move is a failed bounce rather than a durable long-term turn.
Final verdict
Redwire is in an exciting sector, but as a long-term holding it is not worth owning at this price today. The company is still producing very large losses and the current chart does not show an investable setup, so the risk of a sharp re-rating down remains high. Avoid for now and revisit only after sustained profit and cash progress shows up in reported results.