Technology
44/100
44/100Is BB-BlackBerry a buy?
Thursday 25 June 2026
Why now: The business fundamentals have improved versus the last few years, but the stock’s recent run has outpaced the current technical setup and Wall Street expectations. Today looks more like a “wait for proof” moment than a clean long-term entry.
Upside: If BlackBerry hits its fiscal 2027 outlook and QNX keeps compounding, the stock could justify retesting its prior highs over time. However, based on current Street targets, the nearer-term upside case is not compelling at today’s price.
Risks: The biggest risk is that QNX growth slows with the auto cycle or that Secure Communications fails to grow subscriptions enough to sustain higher profits. A second risk is paying too much for a turnaround before it is fully proven in a tougher rate environment.
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Scorecard
Read:Strong metricsSolid metricsSelectiveCautionUnfavourableN/A
| Scorecard | 44/100 | |
|---|---|---|
| Company Detail | BB, BlackBerry Limited | |
| Price as at 24 June 2026 | $8.62 | |
| Market cap | $5.1B | |
| Quality and Fundamental Score (100) | ||
| Breakout / Early-Momentum /20 | 7/20 | |
| Rev/EPS Momentum /20 | 11/20 | |
| Business Quality /15 | 8/15 | |
| Balance Sheet /15 | 9/15 | |
| Valuation /10 | 3/10 | |
| Industry Relative Strength /10 | 0/10 | |
| Macro / Sector Tailwind /10 | 6/10 | |
| Growth | ||
| Cash runway | Cash generative | |
| Revenue YoY | +2.7% | |
| EPS YoY | +1000.0% | |
| FCF YoY | +537.5% | |
| Gross margin | 76.2% | |
| Valuation & Trend | ||
| Trailing P/E | 95.8x | |
| Forward P/E | 42.5x | |
| RSI (14d) | 54 | |
| vs 50d SMA | +20.7% | |
| Support cushion | −4.9% | |
| Sentiment | ||
| Wall Street verdict | Mixed | |
| News tone | Positive | |
| Dividend | — | |
How are these colored?
| Metric | Strong metrics | Solid metrics | Selective | Caution | Unfavourable |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall score | ≥ 80 | 70-79 | 60-69 | 50-59 | < 50 |
| Business quality /15 | ≥ 12 | 10-11 | 8-9 | 6-7 | < 6 |
| Balance sheet /15 | ≥ 12 | 10-11 | 8-9 | 6-7 | < 6 |
| Market cap | ≥ $20B | $5B-$20B | $2B-$5B | $1B-$2B | < $1B |
| Cash runway | ≥ 3 yr or cash generative | 1.5-3 yr | 0.75-1.5 yr | 0.25-0.75 yr | < 0.25 yr |
| Revenue YoY | ≥ 15% | 5-15% | 0-5% | -5-0% | < -5% |
| EPS YoY | ≥ 20% | 5-20% | 0-5% | -5-0% | < -5% |
| FCF YoY | ≥ 10% | 1-10% | 0-1% | -5-0% | < -5% |
| Gross margin | ≥ 60% | 40-60% | 25-40% | 10-25% | < 10% |
| Trailing P/E | < 15 | 15-25 | 25-35 | 35-40 | > 40 or neg |
| Forward P/E | < 15 | 15-25 | 25-35 | 35-40 | > 40 or neg |
| RSI (14d) | 50-70 | 45-50 or 70-75 | 40-45 or 75-78 | 30-40 or 78-80 | < 30 or > 80 |
| vs 50d SMA | +2% to +15% | 0-2% or 15-25% | -2-0% or 25-35% | -3, 2% or 35-40% | < -3% or > 40% |
| Support cushion | 2-10% above | 0-2% | 10-15% | 15-20% | price below support |
| Wall Street verdict | Aligned | — | Mixed | — | Disagrees |
| News tone | Positive | — | Neutral / Mixed | — | Negative |
| Dividend | Yield ≥ 2% & growing | Growing | Flat payer ≥ 1% | Low / flat | Cutting |
Detailed Analysis, Thursday 25 June 2026
What they do
BlackBerry Limited sells software for embedded systems and secure communications, with its QNX platform used in vehicles and other connected devices. It also sells secure communications and critical-event management tools to enterprises and governments, and it earns some revenue from licensing.
Leadership
John GiamatteoCEO
John Giamatteo has been Chief Executive Officer since December 2023.
Tim FooteCFO
Tim Foote has been Chief Financial Officer since July 29, 2024.
Summary thesis
- BlackBerry is no longer a handset story; it is a software company with real traction in embedded systems through QNX and a stable secure-communications franchise tied to government and regulated customers.
- Fiscal 2026 results show a clearer profitability and cash-flow trajectory than in prior years.
- The problem for a long-term buyer is timing: the stock has already surged while the chart is not in a confirmed breakout state, and valuation looks aggressive for a company still proving durable growth.
Wall Street alignment
Wall Street: Mixed signals (1 pos / 1 neg)
Analyst consensus
Hold (3.00, 6 analysts) · -37% upside
Institutional ownership
47% institutions, insiders 0.4%
Short interest
5.5% of float short · 1.0 d-to-cover
Smart money tape
+2 net (acc 5 / dist 3, last 26d)
Recent news
News Positive · last 7d
Show 3 headlines from the last 7d
2026-06-25Earnings+supportive
BlackBerry reports fiscal first quarter 2027 results; revenue up and profitability improves ↗ · ACCESS Newswire
BlackBerry reported fiscal first quarter 2027 results with revenue up 26% year over year to about $153 million and a fifth straight quarter of generally accepted accounting principles net income. It also reported positive operating cash flow for the quarter, which supports the quality of earnings and strengthens the investment case tied to execution in QNX and Secure Communications.
2026-06-25Guidance+supportive
BlackBerry lifted its annual revenue outlook, citing continued momentum in its QNX business, with QNX revenue reported up about 26% in the quarter. A higher full-year forecast increases confidence that the turnaround and growth narrative is translating into sustained results.
2026-06-24Analyst+supportive
Stifel Canada initiates BlackBerry coverage with buy rating and 12 dollar price target ↗ · Investing.com
Stifel Canada started coverage with a buy rating and a 12 dollar price target, highlighting the company’s positioning around QNX and longer-term embedded software opportunities. A fresh bullish initiation can broaden investor attention and reinforce the market’s willingness to underwrite a higher multiple if execution holds.
Dividends
Pays no regular dividend.
Technicals
Price
$8.62
RSI (14d)
53.6
50d SMA
$7.14
200d SMA
$4.78
vs 50d SMA
+20.7%
vs 200d SMA
+80.5%
Support (swing low)
$8.20 −4.9%
40-day high (R)
$10.93 +26.8%
Close as of 2026-06-24.
Score breakdown
Scores 44 out of 100, a mixed overall grade. Balance sheet and sector fit were fair but not standout drivers. Valuation and chart setup weighed on the total. Despite real operating improvement, the stock is not in a credible breakout setup today (it is well below its stated resistance level and the scan shows no confirmed setup). On fundamentals, valuation looks demanding for a business still proving durable growth, so this is not a clean long-term buy at this price.
Component scores are on the scorecard above.
Momentum evidence
- The stock has strong medium-term momentum (very large 90-day gain and far above key moving averages), which signals a real change in investor behavior.
- But the live setup is not a breakout: the scan shows no confirmed setup, no heartbeat confirmation, and price is still below the stated resistance level.
- In other words, momentum exists, but the “next clean step” on the chart is not in place yet.
Fundamental evidence
- In fiscal Q4 2026, total revenue was $156.0 million, up 10% year over year, and fiscal 2026 revenue was $549.1 million, up 3% year over year.
- The company reported GAAP net income of $24.3 million for Q4 and $53.2 million for the full fiscal year, with operating cash flow of $45.6 million in Q4 and $50.3 million for the full year.
- QNX is the bright spot: QNX revenue was $78.7 million in Q4 (up 20% year over year) and $268.0 million for the full year (up 14%), and management cited a QNX royalty backlog of about $950 million.
- BlackBerry also returned capital through buybacks, including repurchasing shares at a much lower average price earlier in the buyback program.
- The red flag is that the overall company is still relatively small in revenue and is coming off a long turnaround, so a few quarters of progress do not guarantee a durable multi-year growth track.
- For a long-term investor, the “proof” needs to continue through fiscal 2027 with steady revenue growth and cash generation.
Cash runway: Cash generative (latest annual free cash flow is positive).
Valuation view
On a sales-based view, the stock looks expensive for a company still proving consistent growth, with commonly cited EV-to-sales multiples in the high single digits. That can be justified for a high-quality, durable software grower, but BlackBerry is not yet fully in that category because its growth has been uneven over the years and depends heavily on QNX execution.
Macro tailwind
Higher defense budgets and digital-sovereignty priorities can support demand for secure communications, while the long-term trend toward more software content in vehicles supports QNX. The near-term risk is that higher rates and a choppy auto cycle can make customer spending and production schedules less predictable.
What to watch
Upcoming (1-6 months)
- Next 1-2 quarterly results and guidance updates, with special focus on QNX growth and full-year fiscal 2027 revenue and adjusted EBITDA progress.
Ongoing
- QNX revenue growth rate and the conversion of the reported royalty backlog into realized royalties, plus stability of Secure Communications recurring revenue trends.
Long-term case
Over a multi-year horizon, the bull case is that QNX remains a critical embedded platform as vehicles and industrial devices add more software, security, and safety features, and that Secure Communications benefits from government and regulated-industry demand for trusted communications. If both segments can grow while maintaining high gross margins, BlackBerry can become a steadier cash-generating software company.
The bear case is that QNX growth normalizes, competition and pricing pressure rise, and Secure Communications grows too slowly to support a premium valuation, leaving the stock as a recurring “turnaround hope” rather than a durable compounder.
Risks & invalidation
Risks
- Auto production weakness or platform competition slows QNX growth, reducing the company’s main growth engine and undermining confidence in the backlog converting into revenue.
Breaks the thesis
- A sustained breakdown below the 200-day moving average (live universe shows BB currently well above it), which would signal that the multi-month uptrend has likely failed.
Bottom line
BlackBerry is improving, and QNX looks like a real asset with meaningful momentum, but this stock is not worth owning as a long-term buy at today’s price. The chart is not in a confirmed breakout setup and valuation leaves little room for execution mistakes. Avoid for now and revisit only if growth and cash flow keep proving out while the stock offers a better entry.