31/100Is INTC-Intel a buy?
Friday 24 July 2026
Why now: Intel just reported results on July 23, 2026, so expectations and guidance have reset and the next 1-2 quarters will either validate improvement or expose that the turnaround is still mostly narrative. The stock is also far below its recent resistance level, so any recovery attempt needs to be earned by execution rather than momentum alone.
Upside: If product competitiveness holds and foundry traction becomes real (more named customers and firmer commitments), a move back toward the prior resistance area near $142 over the next year is plausible, which would be roughly 35% to 40% above the current premarket print around $102.65. The longer-term upside is driven by whether Intel Foundry can become a durable second profit engine, not by a short-term bounce.
Risks: The core risk is that the company remains stuck in heavy spending with inconsistent profitability, while rivals keep the performance lead in the most profitable parts of the market. A second risk is that foundry “engagements” do not convert into meaningful volume customers on leading-edge nodes, which would undermine the multi-year payoff story.
Sign up or log in for access
Unlock the full scorecard, detailed analysis, and research notes. Free, no credit card needed.
Scorecard
| Scorecard | 31/100 | |
|---|---|---|
| Company Detail | INTC, Intel Corporation | |
| Price as at 23 July 2026 | $100.23 | |
| Market cap | $503.8B | |
| Quality and Fundamental Score (100) | ||
| Breakout / Early-Momentum /20 | 1/20 | |
| Rev/EPS Momentum /20 | 0/20 | |
| Business Quality /15 | 8/15 | |
| Balance Sheet /15 | 3/15 | |
| Valuation /10 | 6/10 | |
| Industry Relative Strength /10 | 8/10 | |
| Macro / Sector Tailwind /10 | 5/10 | |
| Growth | ||
| Cash runway | 3.5 yr | |
| Revenue YoY | -0.5% | |
| EPS YoY | +98.6% | |
| FCF YoY | +68.4% | |
| Gross margin | 34.8% | |
| Valuation & Trend | ||
| Trailing P/E | — | |
| Forward P/E | 57.3x | |
| RSI (14d) | 42 | |
| vs 50d SMA | -13.5% | |
| Support cushion | −1.9% | |
| Sentiment | ||
| Wall Street verdict | Aligned | |
| News tone | Mixed | |
| Dividend | — | |
How are these colored?
| Metric | Strong metrics | Solid metrics | Selective | Caution | Unfavourable |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall score | ≥ 80 | 70-79 | 60-69 | 50-59 | < 50 |
| Business quality /15 | ≥ 12 | 10-11 | 8-9 | 6-7 | < 6 |
| Balance sheet /15 | ≥ 12 | 10-11 | 8-9 | 6-7 | < 6 |
| Market cap | ≥ $20B | $5B-$20B | $2B-$5B | $1B-$2B | < $1B |
| Cash runway | ≥ 3 yr or cash generative | 1.5-3 yr | 0.75-1.5 yr | 0.25-0.75 yr | < 0.25 yr |
| Revenue YoY | ≥ 15% | 5-15% | 0-5% | -5-0% | < -5% |
| EPS YoY | ≥ 20% | 5-20% | 0-5% | -5-0% | < -5% |
| FCF YoY | ≥ 10% | 1-10% | 0-1% | -5-0% | < -5% |
| Gross margin | ≥ 60% | 40-60% | 25-40% | 10-25% | < 10% |
| Trailing P/E | < 15 | 15-25 | 25-35 | 35-40 | > 40 or neg |
| Forward P/E | < 15 | 15-25 | 25-35 | 35-40 | > 40 or neg |
| RSI (14d) | 50-70 | 45-50 or 70-75 | 40-45 or 75-78 | 30-40 or 78-80 | < 30 or > 80 |
| vs 50d SMA | +2% to +15% | 0-2% or 15-25% | -2-0% or 25-35% | -3, 2% or 35-40% | < -3% or > 40% |
| Support cushion | 2-10% above | 0-2% | 10-15% | 15-20% | price below support |
| Wall Street verdict | Aligned | — | Mixed | — | Disagrees |
| News tone | Positive | — | Neutral / Mixed | — | Negative |
| Dividend | Yield ≥ 2% & growing | Growing | Flat payer ≥ 1% | Low / flat | Cutting |
Detailed Analysis, Friday 24 July 2026
Lip-Bu Tan has been Chief Executive Officer since March 2025.
David Zinsner has been Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer since January 2022.
Receiver of capital expenditure: Yes, Intel is positioned to receive customer capital spending indirectly through multi-year chip supply and manufacturing decisions, and it can also benefit from government incentives tied to building U.S. semiconductor capacity.
Main customers
- Amazon Web Services (Intel has disclosed plans to produce an AI-related fabric chip for AWS on Intel 18A and a custom Xeon 6 chip on Intel 3.)
- Fortinet (Intel and Fortinet announced a collaboration to develop Fortinet’s next-generation firewall security processor, with manufacturing on Intel 4.)
Notable contracts
- U.S. Department of Commerce CHIPS Act award agreement (Intel), $7.86 billion (announced award framework; disbursements tied to milestones) (Funding is tied to eligible uses and milestones and is intended to support U.S. manufacturing expansion.)
- Intel is a large, strategically important semiconductor company trying to rebuild product leadership while also turning its manufacturing footprint into a credible external foundry.
- The long-term opportunity is meaningful if Intel can combine competitive client and server platforms with steady foundry customer wins and improving margins.
- The near-term reality is that execution must show up in results, because the market is less willing to fund big capex stories without clear progress.
Show 5 headlines from the last 7d
Scores 31 out of 100, a mixed overall grade. Relative strength versus its industry scored highest. Valuation and business quality were fair but not standout drivers. Balance sheet and chart setup weighed on the total. The chart setup is mechanically weak (no breakout setup and below the 50-day average), and the latest quarter includes a very large GAAP loss even though the non-GAAP profit was positive. Until foundry customer wins and sustained profitability are clearer, the score stays capped despite the strategic importance of the assets. Mechanical cap: latest annual net income ≤ 0, Balance Sheet ≤ 3/15, Rev/EPS ≤ 0/20, overall ≤ 50/100.
Component scores are on the scorecard above.
- As of the last completed daily bar, INTC is in a weak setup: it is below its 50-day moving average and has no breakout confirmation, with momentum damaged over the last 20 trading days despite very strong 90-day performance.
- The current premarket print near $102.65 does not change the core message: this is not acting like an early-stage breakout candidate today, even though the broader tech neighborhood has been supportive.
- Intel reported second-quarter 2026 results on July 23, 2026 with a very large GAAP loss per share of $(2.16) alongside positive non-GAAP earnings per share of $0.42, highlighting how much of the current story depends on adjustments and transitional costs.
- Management also provided third-quarter 2026 revenue guidance of $15.8 billion to $16.8 billion and non-GAAP EPS guidance of $0.38.
- On the foundry side, Intel continues to point to external engagements on leading-edge nodes, but hard proof is still developing: the recent Fortinet collaboration is a real named foundry customer win, yet it is on Intel 4 rather than a leading-edge 18A or 14A commitment.
- Intel has also described meaningful work with AWS on Intel 18A and Intel 3, which matters, but investors will still want to see broader customer diversification and repeatability.
Cash runway: 3.5 yr ($17.2B cash ÷ $4.9B/yr burn, latest fiscal year).
Upcoming (1-6 months)
- Follow-through from the July 23, 2026 results: management commentary and any additional updates on external foundry customers over the next one to two quarters.
Ongoing
- Proof points that foundry engagements are turning into committed, named customers on newer nodes, plus sustained improvement in profitability rather than one-time adjustments.
Risks
- Execution risk remains high: delays, yield issues, or weaker-than-expected product competitiveness can keep margins pressured and block a sustained earnings recovery.
Breaks the thesis
- If the stock continues to make lower lows while remaining below the 50-day moving average, it would signal that the market is not accepting the post-earnings reset and that confidence in the turnaround is deteriorating.