Consumer Cyclical
33/100
33/100Is NKE-NIKE, a buy?
Wednesday 1 July 2026
Why now: This is not a good “why now” on the tape: the live technical snapshot provided shows no active pre-breakout setup and no confirmed uptrend. The timing case is mainly fundamental monitoring after the fiscal 2026 results, not a clean long-term entry moment.
Upside: If Nike successfully returns to sustained growth and cleaner margins, the upside could be meaningful from today’s depressed sentiment. However, the near-term outlook suggests revenue pressure continues into fiscal 2027, so upside is more likely to be gradual than fast.
Risks: The biggest risk is that the turnaround takes longer than expected and Nike keeps losing share in key categories and in China. A second risk is that recent margin strength is not repeatable because it included a large one-time tariff recovery.
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Scorecard
Read:Strong metricsSolid metricsSelectiveCautionUnfavourableN/A
| Scorecard | 33/100 | |
|---|---|---|
| Company Detail | NKE, NIKE, Inc. | |
| Price as at 30 June 2026 | $41.05 | |
| Market cap | $60.8B | |
| Quality and Fundamental Score (100) | ||
| Breakout / Early-Momentum /20 | 0/20 | |
| Rev/EPS Momentum /20 | 5/20 | |
| Business Quality /15 | 12/15 | |
| Balance Sheet /15 | 10/15 | |
| Valuation /10 | 2/10 | |
| Industry Relative Strength /10 | 1/10 | |
| Macro / Sector Tailwind /10 | 3/10 | |
| Growth | ||
| Cash runway | Cash generative | |
| Revenue YoY | -9.8% | |
| EPS YoY | -42.1% | |
| FCF YoY | -50.6% | |
| Gross margin | 42.7% | |
| Valuation & Trend | ||
| Trailing P/E | 19.5x | |
| Forward P/E | 17.5x | |
| RSI (14d) | 38 | |
| vs 50d SMA | -6.6% | |
| Support cushion | −2.6% | |
| Sentiment | ||
| Wall Street verdict | Mixed | |
| News tone | Negative | |
| Dividend | 4.0% | |
How are these colored?
| Metric | Strong metrics | Solid metrics | Selective | Caution | Unfavourable |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall score | ≥ 80 | 70-79 | 60-69 | 50-59 | < 50 |
| Business quality /15 | ≥ 12 | 10-11 | 8-9 | 6-7 | < 6 |
| Balance sheet /15 | ≥ 12 | 10-11 | 8-9 | 6-7 | < 6 |
| Market cap | ≥ $20B | $5B-$20B | $2B-$5B | $1B-$2B | < $1B |
| Cash runway | ≥ 3 yr or cash generative | 1.5-3 yr | 0.75-1.5 yr | 0.25-0.75 yr | < 0.25 yr |
| Revenue YoY | ≥ 15% | 5-15% | 0-5% | -5-0% | < -5% |
| EPS YoY | ≥ 20% | 5-20% | 0-5% | -5-0% | < -5% |
| FCF YoY | ≥ 10% | 1-10% | 0-1% | -5-0% | < -5% |
| Gross margin | ≥ 60% | 40-60% | 25-40% | 10-25% | < 10% |
| Trailing P/E | < 15 | 15-25 | 25-35 | 35-40 | > 40 or neg |
| Forward P/E | < 15 | 15-25 | 25-35 | 35-40 | > 40 or neg |
| RSI (14d) | 50-70 | 45-50 or 70-75 | 40-45 or 75-78 | 30-40 or 78-80 | < 30 or > 80 |
| vs 50d SMA | +2% to +15% | 0-2% or 15-25% | -2-0% or 25-35% | -3, 2% or 35-40% | < -3% or > 40% |
| Support cushion | 2-10% above | 0-2% | 10-15% | 15-20% | price below support |
| Wall Street verdict | Aligned | — | Mixed | — | Disagrees |
| News tone | Positive | — | Neutral / Mixed | — | Negative |
| Dividend | Yield ≥ 2% & growing | Growing | Flat payer ≥ 1% | Low / flat | Cutting |
Detailed Analysis, Wednesday 1 July 2026
What they do
NIKE, Inc. designs and sells athletic footwear, apparel, and equipment under the Nike and Jordan brands, plus Converse. It earns money primarily by selling products through wholesale partners and its own direct channels, including stores and digital.
Leadership
Elliott HillCEO
Elliott Hill has been President and Chief Executive Officer since October 14, 2024.
David M. DentonCFO
David M.
Summary thesis
- Nike remains a world-class brand with deep athlete and consumer reach, and the long-term business is not “broken.” But the current cycle is still a turnaround with uneven demand, and the latest quarter’s profitability was heavily helped by a one-time tariff recovery.
- For a long-term holder, the key question is whether growth returns in a durable way while margins normalize for the right reasons.
- Today, the evidence is not strong enough to justify owning the stock with confidence.
Wall Street alignment
Wall Street: Mixed signals (2 pos / 1 neg)
Analyst consensus
Buy (2.47, 33 analysts) · +35% upside
Institutional ownership
82% institutions, insiders 1.5%
Short interest
6.0% of float short · 2.7 d-to-cover
Smart money tape
-2 net (acc 1 / dist 3, last 26d)
Recent news
News Negative · last 7d
Show 5 headlines from the last 7d
2026-07-01Guidance−challenging
Reuters reported that Nike expects sales to keep declining through the first half of fiscal 2027, with a sharp sales drop in China weighing on confidence in the turnaround. This challenges a quality-momentum long thesis because it extends the timeline to a durable growth reacceleration.
2026-06-30Filing·
Nike filed a current report that furnishes a press release with financial results for the fiscal quarter and year ended May 31, 2026. The filing itself is procedural, but it anchors the official release of results and management commentary for investors.
2026-06-30Earnings−challenging
Reuters reported Nike’s quarterly revenue edged past expectations, but management flagged ongoing pressure from China weakness and indicated sales could fall further in the first half of fiscal 2027. That mix reduces confidence that margin and revenue momentum will return soon.
2026-06-24Analyst·
BofA Securities reiterates Neutral rating on Nike and highlights upcoming chief financial officer transition ↗ · StreetInsider
BofA Securities reiterated a neutral stance and pointed to key debate items including China trends, North America sell-through, and the chief financial officer handoff. The update matters mainly as a signal that major analysts still see limited near-term upside until the turnaround shows clearer traction.
2026-06-24Analyst−challenging
Evercore downgrades Nike rating to Hold ↗ · MarketBeat
Evercore downgraded Nike to hold, reinforcing a cautious analyst backdrop around the pace of the company’s recovery. A downgrade can weigh on sentiment and suggests institutional conviction in a near-term rebound remains limited.
Dividends
Yield (fwd)
4.00%
Latest (TTM)
$1.64
2025
$1.61
2024
$1.51
Payout ratio: 78%
Technicals
Price
$41.05
RSI (14d)
37.9
50d SMA
$43.95
200d SMA
$57.61
vs 50d SMA
-6.6%
vs 200d SMA
-28.8%
Support (52w low)
$40.00 −2.6%
Next swing high (swing high)
$46.31 +12.8%
Close as of 2026-06-30.
Score breakdown
Scores 33 out of 100, a mixed overall grade. Business quality scored highest. Balance sheet was fair but not a standout driver. Sector fit and earnings trend weighed on the total. The setup is disqualified on the provided live technical snapshot (no pre-breakout signal, no rising 200-day, and no usable resistance level). Recent results also included a large one-time tariff recovery that makes near-term earnings quality hard to trust.
Component scores are on the scorecard above.
Momentum evidence
- The provided live technical snapshot for NKE is effectively unusable for a momentum-led long-term entry: price and moving-average relationships are missing, the 200-day uptrend flag is not present, and there is no confirmed breakout or recent reclaim.
- With hb marked as not confirmed and no pre-breakout scoring support, this is not a constructive setup.
Fundamental evidence
- Nike reported fiscal 2026 fourth-quarter revenue of about $11.0 billion, down 1% year over year, and full-year revenue of about $46.4 billion.
- Fourth-quarter gross margin rose to 49.2%, but this included an approximately 900-basis-point benefit tied to an expected tariff recovery of about $986 million, which is not a repeatable operating improvement.
- Full-year net income was about $3.1 billion with diluted earnings per share of about $2.10.
- Management also signaled continued revenue pressure into fiscal 2027 (down low to mid-single digits expected in the first quarter), which reinforces that this is still a multi-quarter repair job rather than a clean growth story today.
Cash runway: Cash generative (latest annual free cash flow is positive).
Valuation view
Nike is often valued like a premium consumer brand with durable growth, but the current fundamentals look more like a slow turnaround with pressured demand. Without a clearer path back to steady revenue growth and more “clean” margin expansion, it is hard to justify paying a premium multiple versus other global apparel and footwear peers that have clearer momentum.
Macro tailwind
If Consumer Discretionary continues to stabilize and inflation stays contained, footwear and apparel demand can improve, which would help Nike’s reset. But macro help alone is not enough if product and channel execution remain inconsistent.
What to watch
Upcoming (1-6 months)
- The CFO transition to David M. Denton in mid-August 2026 and how Nike frames fiscal 2027 priorities and capital allocation.
Ongoing
- Whether revenue trends stabilize in North America and China while gross margin holds up without one-time tariff-related benefits.
Long-term case
Over a multi-year horizon, the bull case is that Nike regains product heat in performance categories, rebuilds healthier wholesale distribution alongside its direct business, and returns to steady global growth with disciplined inventory and fewer promotions. Nike’s brand strength and scale still provide long-run advantages in athlete partnerships, innovation spending, and global reach.
The bear case is that competition and shifting consumer tastes keep Nike in a long period of slow growth, with repeated discounting that erodes brand pricing power. Until there is clearer proof of sustained demand recovery, the long-term case is more hope than evidence.
Risks & invalidation
Risks
- The turnaround stalls: revenue keeps shrinking in key markets, competition takes share, and Nike relies on promotions that hurt brand strength and profitability.
Breaks the thesis
- Technical invalidation cannot be set from the provided live universe because key levels are missing; as a rule, do not treat this as investable until the stock is back in a confirmed long-term uptrend with a rising 200-day moving average.
Bottom line
Nike is a great brand, but this stock is not worth owning as a new long-term position right now. The business is still in a slow, messy turnaround, and the latest profit strength was boosted by a large one-time tariff recovery. Avoid buying until demand improves for real and the stock shows a clear long-term uptrend again.