Technology
44/100
44/100Is PLTR-Palantir Technologies a buy?
Thursday 2 July 2026
Why now: It is not a good time to start a new long-term position today. The stock is in a clear pullback with weak relative strength versus its sector, so the risk of further downside is still high even if the business is executing.
Upside: If the company sustains its recent growth and profitability trajectory, the long-term upside could still be meaningful, but the stock price already reflects very high expectations. From this level, returns depend on years of strong execution with little room for mistakes.
Risks: The biggest risks are an expensive valuation versus current revenue and any sign that growth is slowing as the base gets larger. A continued downtrend in the stock can also persist longer than investors expect even when fundamentals look good on paper.
Scorecard
Read:Strong metricsSolid metricsSelectiveCautionUnfavourableN/A
| Scorecard | 44/100 | |
|---|---|---|
| Company Detail | PLTR - Palantir Technologies Inc. | |
| Price as at 1 July 2026 | $125.73 | |
| Market cap | $301.4B | |
| Quality and Fundamental Score (100) | ||
| Breakout / Early-Momentum /20 | 0/20 | |
| Rev/EPS Momentum /20 | 17/20 | |
| Business Quality /15 | 9/15 | |
| Balance Sheet /15 | 10/15 | |
| Valuation /10 | 1/10 | |
| Industry Relative Strength /10 | 1/10 | |
| Macro / Sector Tailwind /10 | 6/10 | |
| Growth (mechanical) | ||
| Cash runway | Cash generative | |
| Revenue YoY | +56.2% | |
| EPS YoY | +231.1% | |
| FCF YoY | +84.1% | |
| Gross margin | 82.4% | |
| Valuation & Trend | ||
| Trailing P/E | 141.3x | |
| Forward P/E | 60.4x | |
| RSI (14d) | 48 | |
| vs 50d SMA | -6.8% | |
| Support cushion | −2.4% | |
| Sentiment | ||
| Wall Street verdict | Aligned | |
| News tone | Mixed | |
| Dividend | — | |
How are these colored?
| Metric | Strong metrics | Solid metrics | Selective | Caution | Unfavourable |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall score | ≥ 80 | 70-79 | 60-69 | 50-59 | < 50 |
| Business quality /15 | ≥ 12 | 10-11 | 8-9 | 6-7 | < 6 |
| Balance sheet /15 | ≥ 12 | 10-11 | 8-9 | 6-7 | < 6 |
| Market cap | ≥ $20B | $5B-$20B | $2B-$5B | $1B-$2B | < $1B |
| Cash runway | ≥ 3 yr or cash generative | 1.5-3 yr | 0.75-1.5 yr | 0.25-0.75 yr | < 0.25 yr |
| Revenue YoY | ≥ 15% | 5-15% | 0-5% | -5-0% | < -5% |
| EPS YoY | ≥ 20% | 5-20% | 0-5% | -5-0% | < -5% |
| FCF YoY | ≥ 10% | 1-10% | 0-1% | -5-0% | < -5% |
| Gross margin | ≥ 60% | 40-60% | 25-40% | 10-25% | < 10% |
| Trailing P/E | < 15 | 15-25 | 25-35 | 35-40 | > 40 or neg |
| Forward P/E | < 15 | 15-25 | 25-35 | 35-40 | > 40 or neg |
| RSI (14d) | 50-70 | 45-50 or 70-75 | 40-45 or 75-78 | 30-40 or 78-80 | < 30 or > 80 |
| vs 50d SMA | +2% to +15% | 0-2% or 15-25% | -2-0% or 25-35% | -3--2% or 35-40% | < -3% or > 40% |
| Support cushion | 2-10% above | 0-2% | 10-15% | 15-20% | price below support |
| Wall Street verdict | Aligned | — | Mixed | — | Disagrees |
| News tone | Positive | — | Neutral / Mixed | — | Negative |
| Dividend | Yield ≥ 2% & growing | Growing | Flat payer ≥ 1% | Low / flat | Cutting |
Detailed Analysis — Thursday 2 July 2026
What they do
Palantir builds software platforms that help governments and companies integrate data, run analytics, and deploy artificial intelligence into real operations. It makes money mainly from recurring software revenue tied to long-term customer relationships across government and commercial clients.
Leadership
Alexander C. KarpCEO
Alexander C.
David GlazerCFO
David Glazer serves as Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer.
Summary thesis
- Palantir is executing well on growth and profitability, and it is positioned in a multi-year shift where organizations want software that turns artificial intelligence into day-to-day operational outcomes.
- However, a long-term owner still has to pay a sensible price and avoid buying into a falling chart.
- Today’s technical picture and relative strength argue for patience rather than ownership at any cost.
Wall Street alignment
Wall Street: Aligned (3/4 signals positive)
Analyst consensus
Buy (1.91, 27 analysts) · +45% upside
Institutional ownership
62% institutions, insiders 3.5%
Short interest
3.6% of float short · 2.0 d-to-cover
Smart money tape
+1 net (acc 1 / dist 0, last 26d)
Recent news
News Mixed · last 7d
Show 3 headlines from the last 7d
2026-07-02Contracts−challenging
Le Monde reported that French firm ChapsVision is set to replace Palantir for a data analytics contract tied to France's domestic security agency. This matters because it signals competitive and political resistance to Palantir in a sensitive government end market outside the United States.
2026-06-29Product+supportive
Palantir announces strategic initiative with NVIDIA to deploy Nemotron open models in secure sovereign environments ↗ · Business Wire
Palantir said it will work with NVIDIA to enable United States government agencies and critical infrastructure operators to run and improve NVIDIA Nemotron open models inside classified and air-gapped environments. This is material because it strengthens Palantir's positioning in high-security deployments, a key differentiator for winning and expanding government and regulated-industry work.
2026-06-29Analyst+
MarketBeat reported that President Capital upgraded Palantir to a buy rating and sharply increased its price target. This can influence near-term sentiment, but it does not change fundamentals on its own.
Dividends
Pays no regular dividend.
Technicals
Price
$125.73
RSI (14d)
48.4
50d SMA
$134.92
200d SMA
$158.12
vs 50d SMA
-6.8%
vs 200d SMA
-20.5%
Support (swing low)
$122.68 −2.4%
Next swing high (swing high)
$136.10 +8.2%
Close as of 2026-07-01.
Score breakdown
Scores 44 out of 100 — a mixed overall grade. Earnings trend scored highest. Balance sheet and business quality were fair but not standout drivers. Valuation and relative strength versus its industry weighed on the total. The tape is weak and fails the pre-breakout gate in today’s live technical snapshot (no 200-day uptrend, no breakout confirmation, very low industry relative strength). Even with strong recent growth, the valuation and price action make it a poor long-term entry right now.
Component scores are on the scorecard above.
Momentum evidence
- The live snapshot shows a sharp recent drawdown, no breakout attempt, and no confirmed long-term uptrend.
- Industry relative strength is extremely weak, which suggests capital is not favoring this name right now even within technology.
Fundamental evidence
- In the most recent reported quarter (ended March 31, 2026), Palantir reported revenue of about $1.63 billion and net income of about $870 million, with operating cash flow around $899 million.
- Trailing twelve-month revenue is around $5.22 billion and has been growing quickly.
- The main fundamental red flag for long-term shareholders is that the stock’s valuation has expanded far ahead of its revenue base, meaning future results must stay excellent to justify the price.
- Investors should also keep monitoring stock-based compensation and dilution risk, which can matter even when reported profits look strong.
Cash runway: Cash generative (latest annual free cash flow is positive).
Valuation view
At a market value in the hundreds of billions with trailing twelve-month revenue a little above $5 billion, the stock trades at a very high sales multiple compared with most large-cap software peers. That kind of valuation can work only if high growth and high margins persist for years, and it can compress quickly when sentiment shifts.
Macro tailwind
A real tailwind is rising spending on artificial intelligence systems that are deployed into production workflows, plus continued modernization demand in government and defense. The headwind is that higher-rate worries tend to punish expensive growth stocks during risk-off periods.
What to watch
Upcoming (1–6 months)
- Next quarterly earnings report (early August 2026) for confirmation that growth, margin, and cash generation remain strong.
Ongoing
- Whether the stock regains a healthy long-term trend and relative strength improves versus the technology sector.
Long-term case
Over a multi-year horizon, the bull case is that Palantir becomes a core “system of record” for operational data and artificial intelligence inside large organizations, leading to expanding wallet share, high retention, and rising profitability as software scales. The company’s government footprint can provide stability, while commercial adoption can drive faster growth. The bear case is that competition and customer pushback limit pricing power and expansion, and the stock’s starting valuation leaves shareholders with mediocre returns even if the business performs well.
Risks & invalidation
Risks
- Valuation risk: even strong execution may not prevent multiple compression if growth slows or rates rise.
- Customer concentration and contract timing risk, especially in government, can create lumpy results and sudden narrative shifts.
- Reputation, privacy, and regulatory scrutiny can slow adoption in sensitive industries and create headline-driven volatility.
Breaks the thesis
- If the stock continues to trend lower and fails to re-establish a durable long-term uptrend (including a rising 200-day moving average), it is not acting like a reliable long-term compounder entry.
Bottom line
Do not buy this stock today as a long-term holding at this price and setup. The business execution looks strong, but the stock is not in a healthy trend and the valuation leaves little margin for error. Wait for a clearly improved long-term chart and a more reasonable risk-reward before considering ownership.