65/100Is DECK-Deckers Outdoor a buy?
Tuesday 13 October 2026
Why now: DECK reports fiscal second-quarter results on October 22, creating a near-term test of whether HOKA and UGG demand remains intact. The shares are up 1.66% in premarket trading to $84.27, but the larger daily-chart trend is still weak.
Upside: The analyst price target in the supplied data is $117.13, implying about 39.0% upside from the current premarket print. That outcome requires continued brand growth and stable premium pricing.
Risks: Growth has slowed from the prior year's pace, and the company remains heavily dependent on HOKA and UGG. A weaker consumer, excess inventory, or more promotional selling would pressure both revenue and margins.
Sign up or log in for access
Unlock the full scorecard, detailed analysis, and research notes. Free — no credit card needed.
Scorecard
| Scorecard | 65/100 | |
|---|---|---|
| Company Detail | DECK - Deckers Outdoor Corporation | |
| Price as at 12 October 2026 | $84.27 | |
| Market cap | $11.5B | |
| Quality and Fundamental Score (100) | ||
| Breakout / Early-Momentum /20 | 0/20 | |
| Rev/EPS Momentum /20 | 16/20 | |
| Business Quality /15 | 11/15 | |
| Balance Sheet /15 | 15/15 | |
| Valuation /10 | 10/10 | |
| Industry Relative Strength /10 | 4/10 | |
| Macro / Sector Tailwind /10 | 9/10 | |
| Growth | ||
| Cash runway | Cash generative | |
| Revenue YoY | +9.8% | |
| EPS YoY | +10.9% | |
| FCF YoY | +14.5% | |
| Gross margin | 57.7% | |
| Valuation & Trend | ||
| Trailing P/E | 11.9x | |
| Forward P/E | 11.2x | |
| RSI (14d) | 57 | |
| vs 50d SMA | -1.6% | |
| Support cushion | −6.4% | |
| Sentiment | ||
| Wall Street verdict | Mixed | |
| News tone | Quiet | |
| Dividend | — | |
How are these colored?
| Metric | Strong metrics | Solid metrics | Selective | Caution | Unfavourable |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall score | ≥ 80 | 70-79 | 60-69 | 50-59 | < 50 |
| Business quality /15 | ≥ 12 | 10-11 | 8-9 | 6-7 | < 6 |
| Balance sheet /15 | ≥ 12 | 10-11 | 8-9 | 6-7 | < 6 |
| Market cap | ≥ $20B | $5B-$20B | $2B-$5B | $1B-$2B | < $1B |
| Cash runway | ≥ 3 yr or cash generative | 1.5-3 yr | 0.75-1.5 yr | 0.25-0.75 yr | < 0.25 yr |
| Revenue YoY | ≥ 15% | 5-15% | 0-5% | -5-0% | < -5% |
| EPS YoY | ≥ 20% | 5-20% | 0-5% | -5-0% | < -5% |
| FCF YoY | ≥ 10% | 1-10% | 0-1% | -5-0% | < -5% |
| Gross margin | ≥ 60% | 40-60% | 25-40% | 10-25% | < 10% |
| Trailing P/E | < 15 | 15-25 | 25-35 | 35-40 | > 40 or neg |
| Forward P/E | < 15 | 15-25 | 25-35 | 35-40 | > 40 or neg |
| RSI (14d) | 50-70 | 45-50 or 70-75 | 40-45 or 75-78 | 30-40 or 78-80 | < 30 or > 80 |
| vs 50d SMA | +2% to +15% | 0-2% or 15-25% | -2-0% or 25-35% | -3--2% or 35-40% | < -3% or > 40% |
| Support cushion | 2-10% above | 0-2% | 10-15% | 15-20% | price below support |
| Wall Street verdict | Aligned | — | Mixed | — | Disagrees |
| News tone | Positive | — | Neutral / Mixed | — | Negative |
| Dividend | Yield ≥ 2% & growing | Growing | Flat payer ≥ 1% | Low / flat | Cutting |
Detailed Analysis — Tuesday 13 October 2026
Stefano Caroti has been Chief Executive Officer and President of Deckers Outdoor Corporation since August 2024.
Steven J.
Receiver of capital expenditure: No: Deckers sells branded consumer products and does not depend on customers making large capital-spending commitments.
Main customers
- Wholesale retailers and specialty running accounts (These accounts carry HOKA, UGG, Teva, and other Deckers products in physical and online stores.)
- Direct consumers (Consumers purchase through Deckers brand websites and company-operated retail stores.)
- Deckers has built two differentiated global footwear brands: performance-oriented HOKA and premium lifestyle-oriented UGG.
- The company pairs that brand strength with direct consumer distribution, a capital-light manufacturing model, substantial cash generation, and aggressive buybacks.
- The long-term case is that HOKA can continue taking global share while UGG broadens beyond its seasonal heritage, but the next earnings report must show that demand is holding without elevated discounting.
Scores 65 out of 100. a decent overall grade. Balance sheet, valuation, and sector fit scored highest. Earnings trend and business quality also helped. Relative strength versus its industry and chart setup weighed on the total. The business and valuation are strong, but this is not a qualified technical shortlist setup: the supplied daily data show no confirmed breakout, no rising 200-day moving average, no volume confirmation, and industry relative strength below 50. Wall Street consensus is Hold rather than a clearly positive set of signals.
Component scores are on the scorecard above.
- The current premarket print is $84.27, above the prior close of $82.89, but that one-session move does not repair the broader technical picture.
- Over the past 90 sessions, the shares are down 21.5%, the 20-day return is only 4.6%, the stock has no breakout confirmation, and its industry relative-strength score of 42 indicates it is lagging the broader consumer discretionary area.
- Deckers produced $5.47 billion of latest annual revenue, $1.02 billion of net income, and $1.10 billion of free cash flow.
- Gross margin was 57.7%, return on invested capital was 33.7%, and the company held $1.60 billion of cash with net debt below zero.
- The main red flag is not financial stress but decelerating growth: the latest fiscal first-quarter release showed slower sales growth than the prior fiscal year, while smaller brands declined.
Cash runway: Cash generative (latest annual free cash flow is positive).
Upcoming (1–6 months)
- Fiscal second-quarter 2027 earnings report and conference call on October 22, 2026.
Ongoing
- HOKA and UGG sales growth, direct consumer growth, wholesale demand, inventory discipline, and gross-margin stability.
Risks
- HOKA or UGG could lose consumer relevance, forcing higher marketing spending or price promotions and reducing the premium profitability profile.
- Deckers relies on independent manufacturers and third-party retail partners, leaving it exposed to sourcing disruption, retailer inventory cuts, tariffs, and shifts in consumer spending.
Breaks the thesis
- The long-term case would be materially weakened if HOKA and UGG both show sustained sales declines, gross margin falls meaningfully, and management must cut its fiscal outlook.
- The technical recovery case is not valid until the stock establishes a measurable resistance level and holds above it; the supplied data do not provide such a level today.