47/100Is ACA-Arcosa, a buy?
Tuesday 6 October 2026
Why now: ACA trades at $146.75 in premarket, only $3.25 below CRH's agreed cash consideration. This is therefore a merger-completion situation rather than a fresh long-term infrastructure investment setup.
Upside: The stated merger consideration implies only about 2.2% upside from the current print before considering the time value of money, taxes, and the possibility of delay.
Risks: The central risk is that regulators delay, condition, or block the CRH transaction. If the deal fails, the limited merger spread can reverse quickly because the share price would again depend on Arcosa's standalone valuation.
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Scorecard
| Scorecard | 47/100 | |
|---|---|---|
| Company Detail | ACA - Arcosa, Inc. | |
| Price as at 5 October 2026 | $146.75 | |
| Market cap | $7.2B | |
| Quality and Fundamental Score (100) | ||
| Breakout / Early-Momentum /20 | 7/20 | |
| Rev/EPS Momentum /20 | 10/20 | |
| Business Quality /15 | 5/15 | |
| Balance Sheet /15 | 11/15 | |
| Valuation /10 | 1/10 | |
| Industry Relative Strength /10 | 7/10 | |
| Macro / Sector Tailwind /10 | 6/10 | |
| Growth | ||
| Cash runway | Cash generative | |
| Revenue YoY | +12.2% | |
| EPS YoY | +122.0% | |
| FCF YoY | -43.8% | |
| Gross margin | 22.4% | |
| Valuation & Trend | ||
| Trailing P/E | 14.7x | |
| Forward P/E | 34.3x | |
| RSI (14d) | 66 | |
| vs 50d SMA | +0.9% | |
| Support cushion | −1.6% | |
| Sentiment | ||
| Wall Street verdict | Aligned | |
| News tone | Quiet | |
| Dividend | 0.1% | |
How are these colored?
| Metric | Strong metrics | Solid metrics | Selective | Caution | Unfavourable |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall score | ≥ 80 | 70-79 | 60-69 | 50-59 | < 50 |
| Business quality /15 | ≥ 12 | 10-11 | 8-9 | 6-7 | < 6 |
| Balance sheet /15 | ≥ 12 | 10-11 | 8-9 | 6-7 | < 6 |
| Market cap | ≥ $20B | $5B-$20B | $2B-$5B | $1B-$2B | < $1B |
| Cash runway | ≥ 3 yr or cash generative | 1.5-3 yr | 0.75-1.5 yr | 0.25-0.75 yr | < 0.25 yr |
| Revenue YoY | ≥ 15% | 5-15% | 0-5% | -5-0% | < -5% |
| EPS YoY | ≥ 20% | 5-20% | 0-5% | -5-0% | < -5% |
| FCF YoY | ≥ 10% | 1-10% | 0-1% | -5-0% | < -5% |
| Gross margin | ≥ 60% | 40-60% | 25-40% | 10-25% | < 10% |
| Trailing P/E | < 15 | 15-25 | 25-35 | 35-40 | > 40 or neg |
| Forward P/E | < 15 | 15-25 | 25-35 | 35-40 | > 40 or neg |
| RSI (14d) | 50-70 | 45-50 or 70-75 | 40-45 or 75-78 | 30-40 or 78-80 | < 30 or > 80 |
| vs 50d SMA | +2% to +15% | 0-2% or 15-25% | -2-0% or 25-35% | -3--2% or 35-40% | < -3% or > 40% |
| Support cushion | 2-10% above | 0-2% | 10-15% | 15-20% | price below support |
| Wall Street verdict | Aligned | — | Mixed | — | Disagrees |
| News tone | Positive | — | Neutral / Mixed | — | Negative |
| Dividend | Yield ≥ 2% & growing | Growing | Flat payer ≥ 1% | Low / flat | Cutting |
Detailed Analysis — Tuesday 6 October 2026
Antonio Carrillo has served as President and Chief Executive Officer of Arcosa since 2018.
Gail Peck has served as Chief Financial Officer of Arcosa since 2018.
Receiver of capital expenditure: Yes: Arcosa receives customer capital spending through public infrastructure work, electric-grid investment, utility expansion, and industrial construction.
Main customers
- GE Vernova (A major wind-tower customer and Arcosa's largest disclosed customer.)
- Public and private electric utilities (They purchase transmission, distribution, lighting, and related utility structures.)
- Concrete and asphalt producers, contractors, and state and local road departments (They buy aggregates, asphalt, specialty materials, and construction support products.)
Notable contracts
- CRH merger agreement — $150.00 per Arcosa share in cash (Arcosa stockholders approved the transaction on September 4, 2026; closing is expected in the first quarter of 2027, subject chiefly to regulatory approvals and other customary conditions.)
- Arcosa built an attractive infrastructure platform around aggregates and engineered structures, with exposure to power-grid expansion and transportation construction.
- Its financial position is sound enough to support that operating story, and CRH's acquisition agreement validates the strategic value of the assets.
- However, public shareholders are not being offered the future compounding of that platform because the agreed transaction converts their shares to cash.
Scores 47 out of 100. a mixed overall grade. Balance sheet scored highest. Relative strength versus its industry and sector fit were fair but not standout drivers. Chart setup and business quality weighed on the total. The score is capped because CRH has agreed to acquire Arcosa for cash. That removes the normal multi-year ownership case: upside is limited by the fixed merger consideration, while a broken or delayed deal would expose holders to a lower standalone value.
Component scores are on the scorecard above.
- The daily chart is extended at its 52-week high but has not confirmed a durable breakout above $147.00.
- Volume is close to its recent baseline rather than expanding, the prior 50-day average reclaim occurred 13 sessions ago, and the supplied heartbeat test remains unconfirmed.
- The latest annual shows $2.88 billion of revenue, $208.4 million of net income, and $175.5 million of free cash flow.
- Gross margin was 22.4%, cash was $432.1 million, the current ratio was 3.12, and net debt to earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization was 1.67 times.
- The balance sheet is not the problem; the red flag for a long-term holder is that future operating improvement will accrue to CRH after closing rather than to continuing ACA shareholders.
Cash runway: Cash generative (latest annual free cash flow is positive).
Upcoming (1–6 months)
- Progress on remaining regulatory approvals and the expected first-quarter 2027 merger closing.
Ongoing
- The spread between ACA's market price and the fixed $150.00 cash consideration.
Risks
- Antitrust or other regulatory review could delay closing, require remedies, or prevent completion.
- The stock offers little remaining return for bearing transaction risk while long-term Treasury yields remain elevated.
Breaks the thesis
- Termination of the CRH agreement would invalidate the fixed-cash thesis and return ACA to a standalone valuation.
- A sustained daily close below the supplied 50-day moving average, approximately $145.40, would break the limited technical support beneath the merger price.