Technology
60/100
60/100Is NOK-Nokia Oyj a buy?
Wednesday 16 September 2026
Why now: NOK is up 4.98% to $10.33 in the current session after Nokia highlighted expanding global artificial intelligence radio-network trials. The news matters because it adds commercial evidence to the company's shift toward artificial intelligence, optical, and cloud networking, even though the broader chart remains weak.
Upside: The FMP analyst target is $17.50, implying 69.8% upside from the current $10.33 print. That outcome requires artificial intelligence and cloud-network orders to convert into sustained revenue growth and stronger returns on capital.
Risks: The main risk is that telecom operators continue to limit spending or demand concessions, leaving Nokia's growth concentrated in a still-small artificial intelligence and cloud opportunity. The current move also lacks confirming volume and sits below the $11.17 resistance level.
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Scorecard
Read:Strong metricsSolid metricsSelectiveCautionUnfavourableN/A
| Scorecard | 60/100 | |
|---|---|---|
| Company Detail | NOK - Nokia Oyj | |
| Price as at 16 September 2026 | $10.33 | |
| Market cap | $55.7B | |
| Quality and Fundamental Score (100) | ||
| Breakout / Early-Momentum /20 | 5/20 | |
| Rev/EPS Momentum /20 | 15/20 | |
| Business Quality /15 | 11/15 | |
| Balance Sheet /15 | 13/15 | |
| Valuation /10 | 4/10 | |
| Industry Relative Strength /10 | 3/10 | |
| Macro / Sector Tailwind /10 | 9/10 | |
| Growth | ||
| Cash runway | Cash generative | |
| Revenue YoY | +3.5% | |
| EPS YoY | -52.2% | |
| FCF YoY | -27.5% | |
| Gross margin | 43.5% | |
| Valuation & Trend | ||
| Trailing P/E | 70.9x | |
| Forward P/E | 30.2x | |
| RSI (14d) | 51 | |
| vs 50d SMA | +1.1% | |
| Support cushion | −5.2% | |
| Sentiment | ||
| Wall Street verdict | Mixed | |
| News tone | Positive | |
| Dividend | 1.6% | |
How are these colored?
| Metric | Strong metrics | Solid metrics | Selective | Caution | Unfavourable |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall score | ≥ 80 | 70-79 | 60-69 | 50-59 | < 50 |
| Business quality /15 | ≥ 12 | 10-11 | 8-9 | 6-7 | < 6 |
| Balance sheet /15 | ≥ 12 | 10-11 | 8-9 | 6-7 | < 6 |
| Market cap | ≥ $20B | $5B-$20B | $2B-$5B | $1B-$2B | < $1B |
| Cash runway | ≥ 3 yr or cash generative | 1.5-3 yr | 0.75-1.5 yr | 0.25-0.75 yr | < 0.25 yr |
| Revenue YoY | ≥ 15% | 5-15% | 0-5% | -5-0% | < -5% |
| EPS YoY | ≥ 20% | 5-20% | 0-5% | -5-0% | < -5% |
| FCF YoY | ≥ 10% | 1-10% | 0-1% | -5-0% | < -5% |
| Gross margin | ≥ 60% | 40-60% | 25-40% | 10-25% | < 10% |
| Trailing P/E | < 15 | 15-25 | 25-35 | 35-40 | > 40 or neg |
| Forward P/E | < 15 | 15-25 | 25-35 | 35-40 | > 40 or neg |
| RSI (14d) | 50-70 | 45-50 or 70-75 | 40-45 or 75-78 | 30-40 or 78-80 | < 30 or > 80 |
| vs 50d SMA | +2% to +15% | 0-2% or 15-25% | -2-0% or 25-35% | -3--2% or 35-40% | < -3% or > 40% |
| Support cushion | 2-10% above | 0-2% | 10-15% | 15-20% | price below support |
| Wall Street verdict | Aligned | — | Mixed | — | Disagrees |
| News tone | Positive | — | Neutral / Mixed | — | Negative |
| Dividend | Yield ≥ 2% & growing | Growing | Flat payer ≥ 1% | Low / flat | Cutting |
Detailed Analysis — Wednesday 16 September 2026
What they do
Nokia sells mobile, optical, internet protocol, fixed-network, cloud, and network-management equipment and software. It earns revenue from communications service providers, cloud and data-center customers, enterprises, governments, and patent licensing.
Leadership
Justin HotardCEO
Justin Hotard has been President and Chief Executive Officer of Nokia since April 1, 2025.
Marco WirenCFO
Marco Wiren has been Chief Financial Officer of Nokia since 2020.
Customers & notable contracts
Receiver of capital expenditure: Yes: Nokia is a direct receiver of customer capital spending because operators, cloud providers, enterprises, and public-sector organizations buy its network hardware, optical systems, software, and related services.
Main customers
- A1 Group (The operator is advancing artificial intelligence radio-network work with Nokia and NVIDIA.)
- Chunghwa Telecom (The Taiwanese operator is participating in Nokia artificial intelligence radio-network trials.)
- NTT DOCOMO (The Japanese operator has ongoing Nokia artificial intelligence radio-network trials.)
- Telxius (The global connectivity provider is deploying Nokia optical networking equipment.)
Notable contracts
- Telxius 800G coherent pluggable deployment (Telxius announced a Nokia deployment aimed at increasing global network capacity and efficiency.)
- Planters Broadband Cooperative artificial intelligence-ready fiber network (Nokia was selected to build fiber infrastructure for underserved communities in southeast Georgia.)
- Nokia artificial intelligence radio-network operator program (A1 Group, Chunghwa Telecom, du, e&, Mobily, stc, TPG Telecom, and Zain Saudi are progressing proofs of concept or live trials using Nokia and NVIDIA technology.)
Summary thesis
- Nokia has a credible path to becoming a more valuable connectivity-infrastructure supplier as artificial intelligence workloads require more optical capacity, faster internet protocol networks, and smarter radio networks.
- Its second-quarter update indicated improving growth and profitability in network infrastructure, supported by large artificial intelligence and cloud orders.
- The balance sheet is strong enough to fund optical capacity expansion and restructuring, but the investment case depends on turning current customer trials and orders into durable high-margin revenue rather than another short telecom spending cycle.
Wall Street alignment
Wall Street: Mixed signals (2 pos / 1 neg)
Analyst consensus
Buy (2.50, 52 analysts) · +70% upside
Institutional ownership
16% institutions, insiders 3.0%
Short interest
1.0% of float short · 0.8 d-to-cover
Smart money tape
+0 net (acc 1 / dist 1, last 26d)
Recent news
News Positive · last 7d
Show 8 headlines from the last 7d
2026-09-16Product+supportive
Nokia said eight additional operators are advancing artificial intelligence radio network evaluations, proofs of concept, or live trials using its platform. The company said the technology has delivered more than 20 percent spectral-efficiency gains, supporting its software-led fifth-generation and sixth-generation network strategy.
2026-09-16Contracts+
Nokia Defense and C3IA signed a memorandum of understanding to develop connectivity and edge-computing offerings for United Kingdom defense customers. The agreement creates a route to pursue work under the United Kingdom Ministry of Defence tactical communications framework, but does not disclose an order value or committed revenue.
2026-09-15Contracts+supportive
Telxius is deploying Nokia coherent optical technology and network automation across terrestrial transport networks in Europe, the United States, and Latin America. The deployment is tied to rising cloud, artificial intelligence, and data-center connectivity demand and supports Nokia's optical-networking growth case.
2026-09-15Analyst+supportive
Rosenblatt initiated coverage of Nokia with a buy rating and a 15 dollar price target. The firm cited Nokia's optical-networking exposure to artificial intelligence infrastructure and forecast operating margin expansion through 2028.
2026-09-14Contracts+supportive
Spain's largest internet exchange point deployed Nokia's platform to detect and mitigate distributed denial-of-service attacks. The service can be offered to more than 200 connected networks, providing a customer validation for Nokia's network-security software.
2026-09-10Contracts+supportive
Planters Broadband Cooperative selected Nokia to build an artificial intelligence-ready fiber network for underserved communities in southeast Georgia. The project is partly funded by the United States Broadband Equity, Access, and Deployment program and uses Nokia access hardware and software.
2026-09-10Product+supportive
Nokia launched a commercially available platform combining mission-critical communications, edge computing, and operational artificial intelligence for mining, public safety, and defense users. The launch broadens Nokia's addressable enterprise and public-sector markets, although no revenue contribution was disclosed.
2026-09-10Product+
Nokia and Orange France completed a live trial of optical network tomography that provides near-real-time network condition data without additional probes. The result validates Nokia Bell Labs technology for network automation, but it was a trial rather than a disclosed commercial contract.
Dividends
Yield (fwd)
1.56%
Latest (TTM)
$0.14
2025
$0.16
2024
$0.14
Payout ratio: 82%
Technicals
Price
$10.33
RSI (14d)
50.5
50d SMA
$10.22
200d SMA
$9.76
vs 50d SMA
+1.1%
vs 200d SMA
+5.9%
Support (swing low)
$9.79 −5.2%
40-day high (R)
$11.17 +8.1%
Next swing high (swing high)
$10.66 +3.2%
Close as of 2026-09-16.
Score breakdown
Scores 60 out of 100. a mixed overall grade. Sector fit, balance sheet, and earnings trend scored highest. Business quality also helped. Valuation and relative strength versus its industry weighed on the total. The score is capped by a weak chart, light trading volume, lagging industry-relative performance, low returns on capital, and an expensive cash-flow valuation. The business momentum is improving, but the market has not yet confirmed a durable rerating.
Component scores are on the scorecard above.
Momentum evidence
- The completed daily bar had only reclaimed the 50-day moving average one session earlier, and the 200-day moving average is rising.
- However, NOK remains 38.7% below its 52-week high, its 90-day return is negative, industry-relative strength is weak, and volume is materially below its prior baseline.
- The live $10.33 price is constructive after the 5% session gain, but it has not cleared the $11.17 resistance level or confirmed a new uptrend.
Fundamental evidence
- Latest annual revenue was $19.89 billion, net income was $651 million, and free cash flow was $1.47 billion.
- Gross margin was 43.5%, while return on equity was only 4.5%, return on invested capital was 4.3%, and free-cash-flow yield was 1.1%, showing that profitability and capital efficiency remain modest for a company valued as a technology growth story.
- The balance sheet is a real strength: cash was $4.35 billion, net debt to earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization was negative 0.37 times, the current ratio was 1.51, and the Piotroski score was 8.
- Restructuring remains a near-term drag, with Nokia accelerating actions to simplify its cost base and reallocate resources toward growth areas.
Cash runway: Cash generative (latest annual free cash flow is positive).
Valuation view
At 70.9 times trailing earnings, 30.2 times forward earnings, 18.5 times enterprise value to earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, and 91.7 times enterprise value to free cash flow, NOK is not priced like a conventional value telecom-equipment supplier. Its 2.43 times enterprise value to sales is more reasonable for a business with a 43.5% gross margin, but the valuation needs a meaningful improvement in earnings conversion and returns on capital to hold.
Macro tailwind
Artificial intelligence data centers need faster optical links, larger internet protocol networks, edge computing, and more efficient radio capacity. Nokia's recent artificial intelligence radio-network and industrial edge announcements place it in several parts of that infrastructure spending cycle.
What to watch
Upcoming (1–6 months)
- Third-quarter and January-to-September 2026 results scheduled for October 22, 2026, including progress on artificial intelligence and cloud order conversion.
Ongoing
- Network Infrastructure growth, optical and internet protocol demand, comparable operating-margin progress, and the pace of restructuring cash outflows.
Long-term case
Over several years, Nokia can benefit if optical networking, internet protocol routing, cloud networking, private wireless, and artificial intelligence-enabled radio networks become a larger share of its mix. The Infinera acquisition and planned United States optical-component capacity can deepen its position in high-speed data transport and improve supply control. A successful transition would reduce reliance on uneven carrier radio spending and lift earnings quality. The swing factor is whether management can defend margins and execute against fierce competition while converting technology leadership and customer trials into recurring, profitable deployments.
Risks & invalidation
Risks
- Carrier spending remains cyclical and intensely competitive, while artificial intelligence radio-network trials may take longer than expected to become large commercial deployments.
- Restructuring charges, supply constraints, currency movements, licensing timing, and integration work could delay the improvement in reported earnings and free cash flow.
Breaks the thesis
- A sustained daily close below $10.20 would reverse the fresh 50-day moving-average reclaim and leave the current session's gain as a failed rebound.
Bottom line
Nokia is evolving from a cyclical telecom-equipment supplier toward a broader provider of the optical, cloud, and radio infrastructure needed for artificial intelligence workloads. Its balance sheet and recent order momentum support that transition, but low capital returns and an unconfirmed chart mean execution must improve materially over the next year. The key swing factor is whether artificial intelligence and cloud demand becomes a lasting profit engine rather than a promising set of trials and product launches.