Technology
51/100
51/100Is SWKS-Skyworks Solutions, a buy?
Monday 20 July 2026
Why now: The stock is trading near $59.63 while the last 20-day return is sharply negative, so expectations look reset; the timing edge is whether earnings stabilization or merger clarity can arrive before sentiment recovers. This is a fundamentals-first watchlist setup, not a momentum breakout setup today.
Upside: If earnings expectations stabilize and the market is willing to value SWKS closer to a normal semiconductor multiple again, a move back toward the low-$70s over 12 months is plausible. That upside depends on guidance credibility and clearer diversification progress rather than on technical momentum.
Risks: The biggest risk is that smartphone demand and content share keep eroding, keeping revenue flat-to-down and preventing margin recovery. A second major risk is merger execution: delays, regulatory friction, or integration concerns could keep the stock in a discounted range.
Scorecard
Read:Strong metricsSolid metricsSelectiveCautionUnfavourableN/A
| Scorecard | 51/100 | |
|---|---|---|
| Company Detail | SWKS - Skyworks Solutions, Inc. | |
| Price as at 20 July 2026 | $59.61 | |
| Market cap | $9.0B | |
| Quality and Fundamental Score (100) | ||
| Breakout / Early-Momentum /20 | 0/20 | |
| Rev/EPS Momentum /20 | 10/20 | |
| Business Quality /15 | 10/15 | |
| Balance Sheet /15 | 12/15 | |
| Valuation /10 | 8/10 | |
| Industry Relative Strength /10 | 1/10 | |
| Macro / Sector Tailwind /10 | 10/10 | |
| Growth (mechanical) | ||
| Cash runway | Cash generative | |
| Revenue YoY | -2.2% | |
| EPS YoY | -16.5% | |
| FCF YoY | -34.5% | |
| Gross margin | 41.2% | |
| Valuation & Trend | ||
| Trailing P/E | 24.8x | |
| Forward P/E | 11.6x | |
| RSI (14d) | 39 | |
| vs 50d SMA | -14.4% | |
| Support cushion | −5.2% | |
| Sentiment | ||
| Wall Street verdict | Mixed | |
| News tone | Mixed | |
| Dividend | 4.8% | |
How are these colored?
| Metric | Strong metrics | Solid metrics | Selective | Caution | Unfavourable |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall score | ≥ 80 | 70-79 | 60-69 | 50-59 | < 50 |
| Business quality /15 | ≥ 12 | 10-11 | 8-9 | 6-7 | < 6 |
| Balance sheet /15 | ≥ 12 | 10-11 | 8-9 | 6-7 | < 6 |
| Market cap | ≥ $20B | $5B-$20B | $2B-$5B | $1B-$2B | < $1B |
| Cash runway | ≥ 3 yr or cash generative | 1.5-3 yr | 0.75-1.5 yr | 0.25-0.75 yr | < 0.25 yr |
| Revenue YoY | ≥ 15% | 5-15% | 0-5% | -5-0% | < -5% |
| EPS YoY | ≥ 20% | 5-20% | 0-5% | -5-0% | < -5% |
| FCF YoY | ≥ 10% | 1-10% | 0-1% | -5-0% | < -5% |
| Gross margin | ≥ 60% | 40-60% | 25-40% | 10-25% | < 10% |
| Trailing P/E | < 15 | 15-25 | 25-35 | 35-40 | > 40 or neg |
| Forward P/E | < 15 | 15-25 | 25-35 | 35-40 | > 40 or neg |
| RSI (14d) | 50-70 | 45-50 or 70-75 | 40-45 or 75-78 | 30-40 or 78-80 | < 30 or > 80 |
| vs 50d SMA | +2% to +15% | 0-2% or 15-25% | -2-0% or 25-35% | -3--2% or 35-40% | < -3% or > 40% |
| Support cushion | 2-10% above | 0-2% | 10-15% | 15-20% | price below support |
| Wall Street verdict | Aligned | — | Mixed | — | Disagrees |
| News tone | Positive | — | Neutral / Mixed | — | Negative |
| Dividend | Yield ≥ 2% & growing | Growing | Flat payer ≥ 1% | Low / flat | Cutting |
Detailed Analysis — Monday 20 July 2026
What they do
Skyworks Solutions designs and sells analog and mixed-signal semiconductors used to connect and manage radio signals and power in smartphones and other electronics. It makes money by supplying integrated radio-frequency components and related chips to consumer device makers and to broader markets such as automotive, industrial, and infrastructure.
Leadership
Philip BraceCEO
Philip Brace has been President and Chief Executive Officer since February 2025.
Philip CarterCFO
Philip Carter is Chief Financial Officer and a Senior Vice President, and he was the CFO on Skyworks’ May 2026 quarterly results release.
Customers & notable contracts
Receiver of capital expenditure: No — Skyworks is mainly a component supplier to device makers; it benefits from product production ramps more than it directly receives customer capital spending budgets.
Main customers
- Apple ecosystem (through distributors and contract manufacturers) (Apple has been more than 10% of Skyworks net revenue in each of fiscal 2023, fiscal 2024, and fiscal 2025, creating meaningful customer concentration.)
- Android smartphone original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) (Skyworks supplies radio-frequency solutions into Android phones; this is the main diversification lever inside mobile.)
- Broad markets customers (automotive, industrial, infrastructure, aerospace/defense) (Management positions broad markets as a growth and stability path outside smartphones; execution has to show up in reported mix and margins.)
Notable contracts
- Proposed Skyworks and Qorvo business combination (A definitive agreement was announced in October 2025; merger-related debt exchange offers in 2026 indicate the transaction is still being worked toward closing.)
Summary thesis
- Skyworks is a cash-generating analog and radio-frequency chip supplier that is trying to reduce its dependence on a single large smartphone customer while keeping shareholder returns intact.
- The long-term case is that diversification into broader markets plus disciplined cost control can make results less cyclical and restore investor confidence.
- The near-term reality is that the stock is not being rewarded for that story yet, so proof in quarterly results is what matters most.
Wall Street alignment
Wall Street: Mixed signals (1 pos / 1 neg)
Analyst consensus
Hold (2.96, 16 analysts) · +22% upside
Institutional ownership
115% institutions, insiders 0.4%
Short interest
30.4% of float short · 5.2 d-to-cover
Smart money tape
+0 net (acc 2 / dist 2, last 26d)
Recent news
News Mixed · last 7d
Show 2 headlines from the last 7d
2026-07-15Other·
Skyworks sets date for fiscal 2026 third quarter earnings release and conference call ↗ · GlobeNewswire
Skyworks announced it will report fiscal 2026 third quarter results on July 28, 2026, followed by an investor conference call. This is a scheduling update, but it sets the next near-term catalyst for the stock.
2026-07-14Analyst−challenging
KeyBanc issued a downgrade on Skyworks Solutions, moving the rating from Overweight to Sector Weight. A downgrade can pressure valuation support and signals softer conviction in relative performance ahead of the next earnings report.
Dividends
Yield (fwd)
4.79%
Latest (TTM)
$2.83
2025
$2.82
2024
$2.76
Payout ratio: 118%
Technicals
Price
$59.61
RSI (14d)
39.3
50d SMA
$69.62
200d SMA
$65.11
vs 50d SMA
-14.4%
vs 200d SMA
-8.4%
Support (swing low)
$56.52 −5.2%
Next swing high (swing high)
$61.80 +3.7%
Close as of 2026-07-20.
Score breakdown
Scores 51 out of 100 — a mixed overall grade. Sector fit, balance sheet, and valuation scored highest. Business quality and earnings trend were fair but not standout drivers. Relative strength versus its industry and chart setup weighed on the total. The score is capped by a weak tape setup (no confirmed breakout signals and a falling long-term trend flag) plus poor industry relative strength, which raises the chance that valuation stays depressed even if fundamentals are acceptable.
Component scores are on the scorecard above.
Momentum evidence
- The technical snapshot is outright weak: the stock is down sharply over the last 20 trading days, has no confirmed breakout/hold signal, and is flagged with a non-rising 200-day average.
- Industry relative strength is also low, implying that even if SWKS bounces, the group is not where the market is concentrating new money right now.
Fundamental evidence
- In fiscal Q2 2026 (period ended April 3, 2026), Skyworks reported revenue of about $943.7 million and non-GAAP EPS of $1.15, with guidance for the June quarter calling for roughly $900 million to $950 million of revenue and non-GAAP EPS around $1.03 at the midpoint.
- Cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities were about $1.44 billion at quarter end.
- Cash flow is a mixed picture: for the three-month quarter, operating cash flow was about $50.3 million and non-GAAP free cash flow was negative (about -$32 million) due to heavy capital spending in the period, while the first six months still showed positive operating cash flow (about $445.8 million) and positive non-GAAP free cash flow (about $306.9 million).
- The company continues returning capital through a regular dividend of $0.71 per share, which signals balance-sheet capacity but also raises the bar for sustaining cash generation through a downcycle.
- A key structural red flag remains customer concentration: Apple has represented more than 10% of net revenue in each of the last three fiscal years through fiscal 2025, which makes the earnings path sensitive to one platform cycle and supplier share decisions.
Cash runway: Cash generative (latest annual free cash flow is positive).
Valuation view
At the current price level, third-party consensus data shows a low forward earnings multiple versus the company’s own history and versus many analog and semiconductor peers, reflecting skepticism that the next year’s earnings level is durable. If earnings prove more cyclical than assumed (or if handset content weakens), the “cheap” multiple can be a value trap; if earnings stabilize, the multiple has room to expand even without hyper-growth.
Macro tailwind
The medium-term tailwind is connectivity and power complexity: more radios, more bands, and more power-management needs across premium phones, plus secular demand in automotive and defense electronics. The swing factor is whether Skyworks can translate those broad trends into share gains and a higher mix outside smartphones.
What to watch
Upcoming (1–6 months)
- Fiscal Q3 2026 earnings release and conference call (scheduled for early August 2026).
- Merger process milestones for the planned Qorvo combination, including progress on the S-4 and related debt exchange steps through late summer 2026.
Ongoing
- Evidence of mix shift: reported traction in broad markets and Android content that reduces reliance on the top customer.
- Cash flow consistency versus dividend and buyback commitments, especially across weaker handset quarters.
Long-term case
Over a multi-year hold, Skyworks can work if it becomes less of a single-customer smartphone proxy and more of a diversified connectivity and power platform. The clearest durable drivers are (1) rising radio and power complexity per device, (2) broader-market end demand in automotive and aerospace/defense, and (3) potential scale and portfolio breadth if the Qorvo combination closes and synergies are realized. The long-term case fails if the company cannot protect handset content, cannot grow broad markets meaningfully, or if merger integration becomes a multi-year distraction that eats margin gains.
Risks & invalidation
Risks
- Smartphone cycle weakness or share loss with key customers keeps revenue pressure in place and prevents margin recovery.
- Merger-related uncertainty (timing, regulatory outcomes, financing, and integration execution) keeps the stock valued at a discounted multiple.
- Customer concentration remains high, so one platform decision can meaningfully change the earnings outlook.
Breaks the thesis
- If the stock continues to make new lows while the company also cuts guidance materially in the next two quarters, the “reset expectations” setup is invalidated because the fundamental floor is not holding.
Bottom line
Skyworks is a mature radio and power chip supplier whose long-term outcome depends on whether it can reduce customer concentration and prove that broad markets can carry more of the business. The stock looks inexpensive on forward earnings, but the chart and industry relative strength say investors still doubt the durability of the next earnings cycle. The main swing factor over the next year is credible evidence of stabilization in mobile plus measurable diversification progress, with the Qorvo deal adding both potential upside and real execution risk.