64/100Is APP-AppLovin a buy?
Wednesday 23 September 2026
Why now: The operating case remains supported by a broader opening of AppLovin Ads to advertisers and by demand for measurable advertising returns. The short-term issue is that the supplied chart snapshot is weak, so the current timing case is business-led rather than technically confirmed.
Upside: The supplied Wall Street target is $532.25, implying 61.9% upside from the $328.73 premarket print. That outcome depends on the advertising platform sustaining its growth and profit profile rather than merely returning to prior price levels.
Risks: The main risks are a slowdown in advertiser spending or weaker returns from AppLovin's targeting tools. A high valuation relative to sales leaves little room for operational disappointment.
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Scorecard
| Scorecard | 64/100 | |
|---|---|---|
| Company Detail | APP - AppLovin Corporation | |
| Price as at 22 September 2026 | $328.73 | |
| Market cap | $110.4B | |
| Quality and Fundamental Score (100) | ||
| Breakout / Early-Momentum /20 | 0/20 | |
| Rev/EPS Momentum /20 | 17/20 | |
| Business Quality /15 | 14/15 | |
| Balance Sheet /15 | 14/15 | |
| Valuation /10 | 7/10 | |
| Industry Relative Strength /10 | 4/10 | |
| Macro / Sector Tailwind /10 | 8/10 | |
| Growth | ||
| Cash runway | Cash generative | |
| Revenue YoY | +70.0% | |
| EPS YoY | +115.2% | |
| FCF YoY | +88.3% | |
| Gross margin | 87.9% | |
| Valuation & Trend | ||
| Trailing P/E | 25.2x | |
| Forward P/E | 20.9x | |
| RSI (14d) | 50 | |
| vs 50d SMA | -6.4% | |
| Support cushion | −7.8% | |
| Sentiment | ||
| Wall Street verdict | Aligned | |
| News tone | Negative | |
| Dividend | — | |
How are these colored?
| Metric | Strong metrics | Solid metrics | Selective | Caution | Unfavourable |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall score | ≥ 80 | 70-79 | 60-69 | 50-59 | < 50 |
| Business quality /15 | ≥ 12 | 10-11 | 8-9 | 6-7 | < 6 |
| Balance sheet /15 | ≥ 12 | 10-11 | 8-9 | 6-7 | < 6 |
| Market cap | ≥ $20B | $5B-$20B | $2B-$5B | $1B-$2B | < $1B |
| Cash runway | ≥ 3 yr or cash generative | 1.5-3 yr | 0.75-1.5 yr | 0.25-0.75 yr | < 0.25 yr |
| Revenue YoY | ≥ 15% | 5-15% | 0-5% | -5-0% | < -5% |
| EPS YoY | ≥ 20% | 5-20% | 0-5% | -5-0% | < -5% |
| FCF YoY | ≥ 10% | 1-10% | 0-1% | -5-0% | < -5% |
| Gross margin | ≥ 60% | 40-60% | 25-40% | 10-25% | < 10% |
| Trailing P/E | < 15 | 15-25 | 25-35 | 35-40 | > 40 or neg |
| Forward P/E | < 15 | 15-25 | 25-35 | 35-40 | > 40 or neg |
| RSI (14d) | 50-70 | 45-50 or 70-75 | 40-45 or 75-78 | 30-40 or 78-80 | < 30 or > 80 |
| vs 50d SMA | +2% to +15% | 0-2% or 15-25% | -2-0% or 25-35% | -3--2% or 35-40% | < -3% or > 40% |
| Support cushion | 2-10% above | 0-2% | 10-15% | 15-20% | price below support |
| Wall Street verdict | Aligned | — | Mixed | — | Disagrees |
| News tone | Positive | — | Neutral / Mixed | — | Negative |
| Dividend | Yield ≥ 2% & growing | Growing | Flat payer ≥ 1% | Low / flat | Cutting |
Detailed Analysis — Wednesday 23 September 2026
Adam Arash Foroughi has been Co-Founder and Chief Executive Officer of AppLovin since the company was founded in 2012.
Matt Stumpf has been Chief Financial Officer of AppLovin since January 2024.
Receiver of capital expenditure: No: AppLovin receives customer spending from advertising and app-monetization budgets, which are generally operating expenses rather than capital expenditure.
Main customers
- Mobile game developers and publishers (They use MAX to auction in-app advertising inventory and use AppLovin Ads to acquire players.)
- Consumer brands and ecommerce advertisers (They use AppLovin Ads to acquire customers, sales leads, subscriptions, and purchases based on measurable return targets.)
- FunCraft (The game developer is presented by AppLovin as a MAX customer and case-study example.)
- AppLovin has become a focused performance-advertising platform with a valuable link between advertiser demand, publisher inventory, and machine-learning-based optimization.
- Its economics are unusually strong for a company of its size, and opening the platform more broadly to consumer businesses expands the possible customer base beyond mobile gaming.
- The investment case depends on that expansion translating into durable advertiser spending without sacrificing return on ad spend or margins.
Show 1 headline from the last 7d
Scores 64 out of 100. a mixed overall grade. Business quality, balance sheet, and earnings trend scored highest. Sector fit also helped. Valuation was fair but not a standout driver. Relative strength versus its industry and chart setup weighed on the total. The business quality is strong, but the current chart does not meet the normal early-momentum standard: APP has no confirmed breakout, no usable moving-average or volume confirmation in the supplied snapshot, and its 200-day moving average is not rising. The share count has also risen 59.1% over five years, which limits the score despite exceptional profitability.
Component scores are on the scorecard above.
- The latest premarket print is $328.73, down 0.44% from the prior close of $330.17.
- The stock gained 10.1% over 20 trading days but remains down 27.5% over 90 days, with an industry relative-strength score of 41 versus the communication-services sector benchmark.
- The supplied snapshot shows no confirmed breakout, no 20-day breakout flag, no confirmed hold above resistance, and a falling-or-not-rising 200-day average.
- The latest annual figures show $5.48 billion of revenue, $3.33 billion of net income, and $3.94 billion of free cash flow, alongside an 87.9% gross margin.
- Liquidity is strong, with $3.05 billion of cash, a 4.30 current ratio, $4.14 billion of working capital, and net debt equal to only 0.08 times earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization.
- Returns on capital are exceptionally high, with 63.8% return on invested capital, but the 59.1% increase in share count over five years is a material shareholder dilution concern.
Cash runway: Cash generative (latest annual free cash flow is positive).
Upcoming (1–6 months)
- The next quarterly results and management outlook, especially commentary on advertiser onboarding after the platform opened to all advertisers.
Ongoing
- Advertiser return metrics, software-platform growth, free-cash-flow conversion, and whether the stock can establish a confirmed uptrend.
Risks
- Competition from much larger advertising platforms, privacy-rule changes, or weaker app-publisher relationships could reduce targeting quality, inventory access, or pricing power.
- The company is highly dependent on proving measurable customer returns; any sustained decline in campaign effectiveness could quickly pressure advertiser budgets and valuation.
Breaks the thesis
- Two consecutive quarters of materially weaker platform growth or declining profitability, combined with evidence that advertiser returns are deteriorating, would weaken the core business case.
- Technically, a continued series of lower lows without a new 40-session-high breakout would confirm that the current recovery has failed.