61/100Is FCF-First Commonwealth Financial a buy?
Sunday 20 September 2026
Why now: Earnings profitability and lending margin improved in the latest reported quarter, while the stock remains close to its annual high without having broken out. The short setup is still weak because the current $21.10 premarket print sits just below the 50-day moving average.
Upside: The supplied analyst target is $31.50, implying 49.3% upside from the current print.
Risks: Credit losses and deposit costs are the main operating risks if higher rates strain local borrowers or intensify competition for funding. The chart also remains unproven below $22.34 resistance.
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Scorecard
| Scorecard | 61/100 | |
|---|---|---|
| Company Detail | FCF - First Commonwealth Financial Corporation | |
| Price as at 18 September 2026 | $21.10 | |
| Market cap | $2.1B | |
| Quality and Fundamental Score (100) | ||
| Breakout / Early-Momentum /20 | 5/20 | |
| Rev/EPS Momentum /20 | 14/20 | |
| Business Quality /15 | 11/15 | |
| Balance Sheet /15 | 12/15 | |
| Valuation /10 | 8/10 | |
| Industry Relative Strength /10 | 6/10 | |
| Macro / Sector Tailwind /10 | 5/10 | |
| Growth | ||
| Cash runway | Cash generative | |
| Revenue YoY | +4.3% | |
| EPS YoY | +5.8% | |
| FCF YoY | +50.4% | |
| Gross margin | 67.6% | |
| Valuation & Trend | ||
| Trailing P/E | 12.9x | |
| Forward P/E | 12.2x | |
| RSI (14d) | 49 | |
| vs 50d SMA | -0.3% | |
| Support cushion | −3.0% | |
| Sentiment | ||
| Wall Street verdict | Aligned | |
| News tone | Mixed | |
| Dividend | 2.6% | |
How are these colored?
| Metric | Strong metrics | Solid metrics | Selective | Caution | Unfavourable |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall score | ≥ 80 | 70-79 | 60-69 | 50-59 | < 50 |
| Business quality /15 | ≥ 12 | 10-11 | 8-9 | 6-7 | < 6 |
| Balance sheet /15 | ≥ 12 | 10-11 | 8-9 | 6-7 | < 6 |
| Market cap | ≥ $20B | $5B-$20B | $2B-$5B | $1B-$2B | < $1B |
| Cash runway | ≥ 3 yr or cash generative | 1.5-3 yr | 0.75-1.5 yr | 0.25-0.75 yr | < 0.25 yr |
| Revenue YoY | ≥ 15% | 5-15% | 0-5% | -5-0% | < -5% |
| EPS YoY | ≥ 20% | 5-20% | 0-5% | -5-0% | < -5% |
| FCF YoY | ≥ 10% | 1-10% | 0-1% | -5-0% | < -5% |
| Gross margin | ≥ 60% | 40-60% | 25-40% | 10-25% | < 10% |
| Trailing P/E | < 15 | 15-25 | 25-35 | 35-40 | > 40 or neg |
| Forward P/E | < 15 | 15-25 | 25-35 | 35-40 | > 40 or neg |
| RSI (14d) | 50-70 | 45-50 or 70-75 | 40-45 or 75-78 | 30-40 or 78-80 | < 30 or > 80 |
| vs 50d SMA | +2% to +15% | 0-2% or 15-25% | -2-0% or 25-35% | -3--2% or 35-40% | < -3% or > 40% |
| Support cushion | 2-10% above | 0-2% | 10-15% | 15-20% | price below support |
| Wall Street verdict | Aligned | — | Mixed | — | Disagrees |
| News tone | Positive | — | Neutral / Mixed | — | Negative |
| Dividend | Yield ≥ 2% & growing | Growing | Flat payer ≥ 1% | Low / flat | Cutting |
Detailed Analysis — Sunday 20 September 2026
Thomas Michael Price has served as President and Chief Executive Officer of First Commonwealth Financial Corporation since March 2012.
James R.
Receiver of capital expenditure: No: First Commonwealth is primarily a financial intermediary rather than a direct recipient of customers' physical capital-spending budgets.
Main customers
- Consumers and households (Customers use checking, savings, mortgages, consumer loans, cards, insurance, and wealth services across Pennsylvania and Ohio.)
- Small and midsize businesses (Businesses use deposits, commercial lending, treasury services, equipment finance, insurance, and cash-management products.)
- Commercial borrowers (Commercial lending teams serve clients in western and central Pennsylvania and major Ohio markets.)
- First Commonwealth combines a focused community-bank franchise with commercial lending, fee businesses, and a meaningful Ohio presence.
- Its earnings profile is supported by healthy profitability, a dividend, and management's recent repurchase authorization.
- The long-term case is not based on rapid expansion; it depends on disciplined loan growth, stable deposits, and credit losses staying controlled through a higher-rate cycle.
Show 1 headline from the last 7d
Scores 61 out of 100. a mixed overall grade. Balance sheet, valuation, and business quality scored highest. Earnings trend and relative strength versus its industry were fair but not standout drivers. Chart setup weighed on the total. The stock is in a base rather than a confirmed advance: it is slightly below its 50-day moving average, has not cleared $22.34 resistance, and trading volume is not expanding. Wall Street consensus is Hold rather than a clearly positive broad signal, so a stronger score would not be justified despite solid profitability.
Component scores are on the scorecard above.
- FCF has gained 15.1% over 90 trading days and is only 3.9% below its 52-week high, while its industry-relative-strength reading is above the neutral mark.
- But the near-term tape does not confirm a new advance: the stock is 0.3% below the 50-day moving average, the relative-strength index is a neutral 49.1, and volume is near its baseline rather than showing strong demand.
- Figures show latest annual revenue of $729.44 million, net income of $152.30 million, diluted earnings per share of $1.47, and free cash flow of $171.36 million.
- Return on equity was 10.8%, return on assets was 1.4%, and the dividend payout ratio was a manageable 33.4%.
- Red flags include a 6.02% rise in share count over five years and a loan-to-deposit business model that remains exposed to credit costs, deposit pricing, and local economic conditions.
Cash runway: Cash generative (latest annual free cash flow is positive).
Upcoming (1–6 months)
- Third-quarter results, including management's update on loan growth, deposit trends, lending margins, and credit provisioning.
Ongoing
- Nonperforming loans, net charge-offs, deposit costs, and whether the share price can close and remain above $22.34.
Risks
- A recession or regional slowdown could increase commercial real-estate and business-loan losses, requiring materially higher credit provisions.
- Stronger competition for deposits could compress lending margins and limit earnings even if loan balances continue to grow.
Breaks the thesis
- A sustained break below $20.00 without an improving fundamental explanation would negate the current base-building setup.