24/100Is LUNR-Intuitive Machines, a buy?
Thursday 13 August 2026
Why now: The stock is trading sharply lower today (about 6.7% below the prior close), which raises the chance of a sentiment reset around the company’s earnings day and near-term program updates. The long-term question is not the day-to-day move; it is whether NASA task orders and mission cadence can translate into durable revenue and improving cash results over the next year.
Upside: Street targets imply large upside from here (FMP target $42 versus a current print around $15.84), but the realistic upside over 12+ months depends on converting backlog into revenue while reducing losses and dilution. A cleaner path to profitability would matter more than any single contract headline.
Risks: Execution risk is high: lunar missions are complex and failures or delays can damage future awards and margins. The financial model is still loss-making with negative free cash flow, and the company has a history of heavy dilution.
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Scorecard
| Scorecard | 24/100 | |
|---|---|---|
| Company Detail | LUNR - Intuitive Machines, Inc. | |
| Price as at 13 August 2026 | $15.63 | |
| Market cap | $2.5B | |
| Quality and Fundamental Score (100) | ||
| Breakout / Early-Momentum /20 | 0/20 | |
| Rev/EPS Momentum /20 | 0/20 | |
| Business Quality /15 | 5/15 | |
| Balance Sheet /15 | 3/15 | |
| Valuation /10 | 4/10 | |
| Industry Relative Strength /10 | 2/10 | |
| Macro / Sector Tailwind /10 | 10/10 | |
| Growth | ||
| Cash runway | 6.6 yr | |
| Revenue YoY | -7.9% | |
| EPS YoY | +84.9% | |
| FCF YoY | +17.3% | |
| Gross margin | 15.6% | |
| Valuation & Trend | ||
| Trailing P/E | neg | |
| Forward P/E | — | |
| RSI (14d) | 49 | |
| vs 50d SMA | -17.0% | |
| Support cushion | −6.9% | |
| Sentiment | ||
| Wall Street verdict | Mixed | |
| News tone | Quiet | |
| Dividend | — | |
How are these colored?
| Metric | Strong metrics | Solid metrics | Selective | Caution | Unfavourable |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall score | ≥ 80 | 70-79 | 60-69 | 50-59 | < 50 |
| Business quality /15 | ≥ 12 | 10-11 | 8-9 | 6-7 | < 6 |
| Balance sheet /15 | ≥ 12 | 10-11 | 8-9 | 6-7 | < 6 |
| Market cap | ≥ $20B | $5B-$20B | $2B-$5B | $1B-$2B | < $1B |
| Cash runway | ≥ 3 yr or cash generative | 1.5-3 yr | 0.75-1.5 yr | 0.25-0.75 yr | < 0.25 yr |
| Revenue YoY | ≥ 15% | 5-15% | 0-5% | -5-0% | < -5% |
| EPS YoY | ≥ 20% | 5-20% | 0-5% | -5-0% | < -5% |
| FCF YoY | ≥ 10% | 1-10% | 0-1% | -5-0% | < -5% |
| Gross margin | ≥ 60% | 40-60% | 25-40% | 10-25% | < 10% |
| Trailing P/E | < 15 | 15-25 | 25-35 | 35-40 | > 40 or neg |
| Forward P/E | < 15 | 15-25 | 25-35 | 35-40 | > 40 or neg |
| RSI (14d) | 50-70 | 45-50 or 70-75 | 40-45 or 75-78 | 30-40 or 78-80 | < 30 or > 80 |
| vs 50d SMA | +2% to +15% | 0-2% or 15-25% | -2-0% or 25-35% | -3--2% or 35-40% | < -3% or > 40% |
| Support cushion | 2-10% above | 0-2% | 10-15% | 15-20% | price below support |
| Wall Street verdict | Aligned | — | Mixed | — | Disagrees |
| News tone | Positive | — | Neutral / Mixed | — | Negative |
| Dividend | Yield ≥ 2% & growing | Growing | Flat payer ≥ 1% | Low / flat | Cutting |
Detailed Analysis — Thursday 13 August 2026
Stephen Altemus has been Co-Founder, President, Chief Executive Officer and a Director of Intuitive Machines.
Peter McGrath serves as Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of Intuitive Machines.
Receiver of capital expenditure: Yes — A meaningful portion of the company’s revenue comes from government programs where the customer is effectively funding development and mission delivery through contract payments rather than relying on consumer demand.
Main customers
- NASA (Primary customer via Commercial Lunar Payload Services task orders and related lunar delivery programs.)
- National security and defense space ecosystem (Program work tied to spacecraft, navigation, and communications capabilities (often through government or prime-contractor channels).)
Notable contracts
- NASA CLPS task order (Nova-D / IM-5 related payload delivery) — $180.4M (Contract to deliver science and technology payloads to the lunar south pole region, including an Australian Space Agency rover and payloads associated with Honeybee Robotics.)
- NASA CLPS task order (Nova-C production-line qualification) — Up to $148.3M (Firm-fixed-price structure with a base mission execution component and incentives tied to production-line qualification, with delivery no later than 2028.)
- Intuitive Machines is an early leader in commercial lunar delivery and related space infrastructure services, with NASA task orders that can support multi-year mission cadence if execution improves.
- The upside case rests on turning one-off missions into a repeatable, production-like service model and expanding adjacent network and navigation offerings.
- The stock, however, is not priced like a steady industrial contractor; it is priced like a high-volatility program business where credibility and cash discipline must be earned quarter by quarter.
- For a 1+ year horizon, the key is whether revenue scale starts to narrow losses and reduce the need for dilution.
Show 1 headline from the last 7d
Scores 24 out of 100 — a mixed overall grade. Sector fit scored highest. Valuation and business quality weighed on the total. The score is capped by weak technical health (well below the 50-day and 200-day averages), low volume support, and still-negative profitability and free cash flow. The company can be a real beneficiary of lunar and space infrastructure programs, but execution risk is high and dilution has been severe. Mechanical cap: latest annual net income ≤ 0 — Balance Sheet ≤ 3/15, Rev/EPS ≤ 0/20, overall ≤ 50/100.
Component scores are on the scorecard above.
- As of the latest daily snapshot, the setup is weak: the stock is well below both the 50-day and 200-day averages and has not reclaimed key trend levels.
- Industry relative strength is low, and volume signals do not show accumulation; today’s live print is also meaningfully below the prior close, which confirms that near-term sentiment is fragile.
- The one constructive technical note is that the 200-day moving average is still rising, which can matter if the company delivers a sequence of credible execution updates.
- But right now this is a recovery story, not an active breakout.
- The business is still in a loss phase: latest annual revenue is $210.06M with net income of -$83.29M and free cash flow of -$56.02M.
- Gross margin is modest at 15.6%, which leaves limited room for execution slips on complex missions.
- Balance sheet liquidity looks better than many early-stage peers with $367.35M of cash and a current ratio of about 1.66, and FMP’s computed cash runway is 6.56 years.
- The major red flag is dilution: share count has risen sharply (560.34% over 5 years), which means per-share outcomes can disappoint even if the program story progresses.
Cash runway: 6.6 yr ($367M cash ÷ $56M/yr burn, latest fiscal year).
Upcoming (1–6 months)
- Management commentary and updated outlook on the August 13, 2026 earnings call, especially any clarity on mission cadence and contract conversion timing.
Ongoing
- Evidence that revenue growth is paired with better gross margin and a smaller free cash flow deficit, plus any slowdown in dilution.
Risks
- Mission failure, major delay, or cost overrun that hurts credibility with NASA and partners and reduces future task order wins.
- Continued heavy dilution that limits per-share upside even if revenue and backlog grow.
Breaks the thesis
- If the stock cannot recover trend levels over time and instead makes a new sustained post-earnings low while fundamentals remain cash-negative, the long-term ownership case weakens materially.